Miller Magazine Issue: 142 October 2021

84 INTERVIEW MILLER / OCTOber 2021 While key wheat exporters in Northern Hemisphere, including Canada, the United States and Russia, have been hit by adverse weather and drought, Australia is expecting a second consecutive bumper harvest after two years of drought. Shrinking global wheat production is expected to see robust export demand for Australian wheat. And rising wheat prices put a smile on the face of Australian farmers. “The large production, in combi- nation with high prices driven by poor events overseas, has led to a golden period where farmers can recoup the losses from previous droughts,” said Thomas Elder Markets senior ag economist Andrew Whitelaw. In an exclusive interview with Miller Magazine, Mr. Whitelaw said Australia will be well-positioned to partic- ipate in the market. “The Russian export regulations are another benefit to the Australian industry,” adds experi- enced commodity market analyst. Responding to our questions, Andrew Whitelaw pro- vides valuable insight into the Australian grain industry and world wheat markets. First of all, could you please share the 2021/22 wheat output and exports forecast with us? Forecasting the Australian crop is always a difficult process, the climate in this continent likes to throw as many barriers in the way right up until harvest. We have largely got through most of the growing season with good rainfall and hampered only by a few bouts of frost in Western Australia. The coming issue facing the crop is a wetter than nor- mal harvest period for the eastern states, which could potentially have an impact on the availability of milling quality grades. Based on nothing going wrong (mice, frost, hail, storms or fire!) our forecast for production is for approximately 32.2 to 32.8mmt, with circa 22-23mmt available for export. While top wheat exporters Russia, United States, and Canada expect lower output, Australia will har- vest a bumper wheat crop. Do you think this situation would give Australia an opportunity to expand into new markets? “The large production, in combination with high prices driven by poor events over- seas, has led to a golden period where farmers can recoup the losses from previous droughts. While many other nations will be struggling to fulfill the export market re- quirements, Australia is back in action for a second year. Whilst many of our markets are existing ones, such as many parts of South East Asia, we will have the capacity to reach further afield.” A golden period for Australian wheat industry Andrew Whitelaw Manager Thomas Elder Markets