Miller Magazine Issue: 143 November 2021

90 Country Profile MILLER / november 2021 Chart 5 shows the seasonality of wheat exports, with 2021 and also 2017 overlaid. As we can see, these are both two years with large export programs. Since the start of the export season (December), we have so far exported 21.7mmt, and in the 2017 season, we exported 22.2mmt. We easily have the capacity to export the volumes that are required of a large export program. Chart 6 shows the cumulative exports for 2017 and 2019. The USDA export forecast is included in the dotted line. There are still a number of months to go, allowing us to reach record export levels easily. As we move into next year, with stock levels that are lower than average, we will easily be up to the task. We will see huge export programs of wheat in the first half of 2022, as we aim to cement the premiums in the market ahead of the next northern hemisphere harvest. GROWING LOCAL CONSUMPTION In Australia, we have seen consumption of grains increase in the past twenty years, from approximate- ly 5mmt to an average of 8.2mmt in recent years. There is a tendency for grain consumption to in- crease during times of drought. In the chart below we can see this during the 2006 to 2008 period, and recently in 2018. The reason for increased con- sumption during times of lower supply is due to the impact of drier climates on pasture. A large proportion of Australian cattle and sheep are fed in pasture-based systems (or grass-fed); during a time of drought, this impacts pasture Chart 10 Chart 11