Miller Magazine Issue: 143 November 2021

91 Country Profile MILLER / november 2021 growth. The result is that supplementary feeding of animals is required, therefore leading to increased demand that would not usually be present in an av- erage production year. The growth of milling domestically within Aus- tralia has been slow, with very little increase over the past twenty years. Future domestic demand for wheat (and other grains) is likely more likely to be focused on feeding livestock instead of increased milling capacity. OUR FUTURE LIES IN INDONESIA The world’s largest importer of wheat for a long time has been Egypt. Egypt has been a big buy- er due to the diet supported by heavily subsidised bread. The majority of the country is able to buy bread at subsidised rates. The country also has an insufficient production capacity to meet the requirements of 100 million people. The place of Egypt at the top of the wheat export tree might be in contention in the coming years, with our most populous neighbour, Indone- sia, a potentially viable contender. The population is forecast at approximately 274m people, more than ten times the population of Aus- tralia at 25.6m. It is expected that the population will grow to 330m by 2050. That is a huge number of mouths to feed, and it's perfectly situated for Australian ex- ports. The growing population and the lack of local production have resulted in ever-growing imports. During the last half of the 2000s, Indonesia import- ed on average 5.6mmt. During the past five years, this has jumped to 10.5mmt. This volume will contin- ue rising for both food and for feed. The rise has been dramatic and has seen Indone- sian imports of wheat rise to an average of 85% of the volume which Egypt imports. Whilst Egypt is import- ant, and their tenders are closely watched to drive global directions, Indonesia is a quiet performer. This places a neighbouring nation as a customer with the potential to soak up a large chunk of our exportable surplus. Chart 11 shows the theoretical % of our exports, which Indonesia could meet (our total exports vs their total imports). Interestingly during the recent droughts, our to- tal exports were lower than their total imports. This resulted in Indonesia importing larger volumes from our rivals. Australia is lucky to be positioned so close to such a significant trading partner who will not have the capacity to grow its local production.