Miller Magazine Issue: 144 December 2021

94 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / december 2021 In other words, the global wheat balance at that time became more dependent on the Southern Hemi- sphere. Winter crops in Australia and Argentina have become a problem. But looking ahead, it did not help - global inflation and the threat of disruption to supply chains pushed markets up. Corn was too expensive and needed more than the market expected. Wheat began to be used in feed. All the jokers were in the hands of the wheat producers. On top of that, freight began to rise. The USDA has cut both acreage and potential yields. Prices continued to rise. Winter crops 20/21 in the Black Sea developed well. Siberia and neighboring agricultural regions of Ka- zakhstan. And it was not possible to restore the potential of winter wheat everywhere. In August 2020, Brazil's wheat pro- duction could hit a record this sea- son, while neighbor and main sup- plier Argentina struggles to maintain yielding potential as dry winters and lack of moisture in anticipation of soil weakened production forecasts. Traders are counting on Austra- lia to stem the downward trend in global wheat production in 2020/21. The huge potential of the Australian wheat crop has become a lever for lowering world prices for this grain. The European harvest period made it clear that this year's production in the Union was mixed this year, as the growing season was dry for various producers and exporters. The result- ing harvest is below average means grain exports from the EU will be much lower in the 2020/21 marketing year. The steady flow of grain cargoes to China has been phenomenal as Beijing sought to rebuild strate- gic stocks ahead of a new 5-year cycle and respond- ed to rising domestic de- mand driven by a stronger economy and the recovery in pigs following the Afri- can swine fever outbreak. This looks like a bumper crop for Canadian farmers in 2020. India looked good too. But the bulls cannot be stopped. At that moment, the global corn balance is rife with questions and un- certainties, and this will be a decisive factor in the de- velopment of international grain markets as autumn approaches in the North- ern Hemisphere. World wheat prices were rising, catching both trad- ers and consumers by surprise. With a fairly large harvest in Russia, the mar- ket expected supply pres-