Miller Magazine Issue: 144 December 2021

97 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / december 2021 ported by inflation and huge amounts of money poured into the economy, freight - all renewed highs daily. There was no harvest pressure or a collapse against the back- drop of a halt in purchases by China. Record harvests in some regions made up for Canada's losses and Russia's unjustified hopes. However, this season's drought has affected North Africa and many Asian countries. Against the backdrop of Russian restrictions and poor quality in the EU and Ukraine, demand from Turkey, Pakistan and other countries pushed prices up to near-record highs - more than today, wheat cost only in 2008. The desire to secure supplies became more and more evident. And this despite the fact that there is plenty of corn. Food wheat, as we predicted at the be- ginning of the season. Now we have price support in our piggy bank: • Expensive fertilizers. Very ex- pensive. Failure to bring them in is to lose yield. • Dry weather in the Northern Hemisphere - the area is lower than last year. • Huge harvest of Australia - we are already talking about 37MMT. But, as in Ukraine, and in the EU - because of the rains, a lot of fod- der grain is expected. Such a pro- posal will obviously bring down the prices for corn, in contrast to the last season, while it seems unrealistic to see a lot. • The next quotas in Russia - according to last year's scenario, and the likelihood of toughening the duty • Threat of restriction in Ukraine • Expensive freight If it is possible to minimize the risk of inflation, then overheated markets and oils will quickly be handed over. And if China will not return to the market. If...