Miller Magazine Issue: 145 January 2022

61 COVER STORY MILLER / january 2022 Below chart by Russian Institute of Agricultural Studies IKAR shows the cost of interior and export logistics in Rus- sia with an apparent gradual increase in importance of the local grain market giving a vector of future development for the new year. If this trend persists, this could mean that the local market could gradually pull the grain towards the interior at the expense of Russian grain exports. Alternatively, another grain superpower in the Black Sea Ukraine has gained in importance in the international grain market this season. Having harvested a record wheat crop estimated at over 32,5 million tons, Ukraine plans to export 25,3 million tons and Ukrainian authorities announced not to consider imposing any restrictions on grain exports to curb them in any way. Ukrainian grain infrastructure is to be further improved in the coming years for the benefit of local producers and final consumers alike as there are substan- tial savings yet to be realized along the way. One of the important factors for the price definition of grain is weather. A fierce winter storm can simply shut down the efficient movement of any type of freight. When the nav- igation conditions for small vessels on the Azov are severe and large port infrastructure is incapacitated by spells of cold icy weather, it can reduce the supply and push up the prices for spot deliveries. Until now, we have been blessed by a fairly mild winter in Europe and Black Sea alike. Mother Nature has been extremely clement so far and winter-kill predictions for the Black Sea have failed to materialize as cold snaps have been of a short-lived character and are not believed to have caused significant damage so far. This been said, we have seen otherwise on many occasions, come proverbial Epiphany frosts. Especially worrisome is the situation in the south of Russia and south of Ukraine in the event of persistent cold snaps due to the lack of snow cover. Fingers crossed.