Miller Magazine Issue: 145 January 2022

76 INTERVIEW MILLER / january 2022 There are reports in the Turkish media that some Turk- ish flour millers will move their mills to Russia after the historical increase in wheat prices. Do you think these investments will continue? Do you think these invest- ments will be profitable? It seems there is no big need in Turkish investments, as we traditionally have an overcapacity of flour milling in Rus- sia. However, some spot projects as well as strategic alli- ances are possible and desirable. Could you give information about the winter wheat plantings in Russia? How is the wheat production out- look? Could share the prospect for the 2022/23 season? Winter wheat planting may be second largest in our his- tory, while state of the crop is generally very good, with only couple of rather minor exceptions. That's why our current - very provisional - wheat production forecast is very posi- tive - 82-83 mmt. But again, all risks are ahead, so these are very provisional figures. Do you think Russia can maintain world leadership in wheat exports despite export restrictions? We hope so. Global wheat prices climbed to their highest since 2013 on expectations of lower output among top exporters. Do you think prices will be even higher? Which factors will drive the markets? What do you expect from 2022? Global wheat prices have gradually descended from their highs since the middle of December. The analysts mention several factors behind it, but in our view the real trigger was Mr. Powell's statement regarding serious struggle against the inflation in the US. speculative funds started to retreat from commodities, including agriculture, including grains, including wheat. However, we can't deny possibility of an- other wave of price strengthening, which may be provoked by internal wheat market factors, such as a visible disaster of winter wheat in key important production regions. Global grain production is poised to hit an all-time high but stocks set to decline. There are concerns that there will be a food crisis in 2022. Do you share these concerns? High prices provide high motivation for growth of pro- duction. However, there are factors of risk, associated with weather, or ammonia availability problems. However, de- mand must be regulated by prices, and in well-functioning market economy there should not be physical shortage.