Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

42 MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 NEWS Following the 2021 reduced output, Russia’s wheat shipments, accounting on average for 80 percent of the total grain exports, are forecast at 34 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average volume. Similarly, barley exports are expected at below‑average 4.3 million tonnes. The aggregate 2021 grain output of Russia is set at 116.9 million tonnes, 14 percent below the five‑year average level. According to preliminary official data, the 2021 output of wheat is estimated at 75.9 million tonnes, about 10 percent below the previous year’s level and slightly below the average, despite large plantings. The result is due to colder and drier‑than‑average weather condi- tions in March and April 2021, which caused winterkill in some snow‑free areas of the key winter wheat producing Southern dis- trict, resulting in an overall decrease in yields. Production of barley is preliminarily officially estimated at 17.9 million tonnes, 8 percent below average due unfavourable weather conditions, which affected yields. By contrast, the out- put of maize is set at about 14.7 million tonnes, 7 percent above the average level due to large plantings and overall favourable weather conditions during the season in the main producing ar- eas. WHEAT SHIPMENTS BELOW FIVE‑YEAR AVERAGE A floating export duty system for wheat, maize and barley has been in force since 2 June 2021. In addition, on 17 December 2021, an 11 million tonnes quota on cereals exports to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was approved for the period between 15 February and 30 June 2022. The quota on exports of wheat and meslin was set at a total of 8 million tonnes, while the quota on aggregate exports of barley, maize and rye was set at 3 million tonnes. These measures aim to guarantee adequate availabilities of basic foodstuffs in the domestic market and prevent price increases. Following the 2021 reduced output, wheat shipments, account- ing on average for 80 percent of the total cereal exports, are fore- cast at 34 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average vol- ume. Similarly, barley exports are expected at below‑average 4.3 million tonnes. By contrast, maize exports are foreseen at slightly above‑average level of 4.5 million tonnes. As a result, aggregate grain exports in the 2021/22 marketing year (July/June) are fore- cast at about 43 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year aver- age volume. Export prices of milling wheat increased sharply between July and November 2021, mirroring prevailing trends in the interna- tional market and owing to strong buying interest from importing countries and limited supplies of high‑quality milling wheat at the global level. Concerns about the impact of low soil moisture lev- els on the 2022 crops in parts of North America and the Black Sea region, coupled with rumours on the possible introduction of a quota on Russian wheat exports in 2022, provided further upward pressure. In November, prices reached the highest levels since March 2013. In December, export prices of milling wheat de- clined slightly, reflecting improved prospects for the 2022 wheat crop in the country, but remained about 30 percent higher than a year before, amid the harvest of a year‑on‑year lower output. Domestic wholesale prices of milling wheat also sharply in- creased between July and November 2021, and reached record high levels. Prices slightly declined last December, but remained about 5 percent above their year‑earlier levels. GIEWS Russia’s grain exports forecast below average in 2021/22