Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

84 ARTICLE MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 The reality is that Russia has been doing volume into Asia, but not huge volumes. I would expect that whilst Russian trade into China may grow, it will be opportune and seasonal. While Australia is locked out of the barley trade, I would expect Russia to increase market share into China. During the drought, our export volumes decreased, and we were frankly too expensive. These are the times that Russian grain will work well to China. We are cur- rently far more competitive than Russia into China, there- fore more likely to pick up trade. If we look at the nations that Russia exports to, they tend to be those with a relative geographic advantage. Russia is still likely to be focused on the nations in their neighbourhood. The reality is that Russia has large volumes that it can place onto the market and can compete with us. The trader in China now has more options, but it will still be down to price. Australia has to remain competitive to get sales onto China – but that is always the case. It is important to note it is a flow of trades. If more volume from Russia goes into China, then that opens up different opportunities for competing origins.