Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

88 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 its’ full potential, it now represents 80% of total Bra- zil production, a truly astounding number! Armed with know-how, technology and a blessed territory, Brazilian producers invested ever more in the Sa- frinha crop, making it what it is today, a true giant on its’ own right and largely responsible for the in- credible story that is Brazil’s corn sector. The name remains Safrinha, but there is truly nothing small about it any longer… On to 2022 and one of the best planting windows in history, along with nicely moist soils and a record area due to high prices all combine to put Brazil on the verge of record production & exports. Bra- zil’s Safrinha could reach as high 92-93 MMTs (with some estimates as high as 95 MMTs due to an ag- gressive increase in area). At 92 MMTs, “Safrinha” production alone could be around 5 MMTs higher than last year’s entire corn production, a potential 53% increase over last year’s drought ravaged 60 MMTs. Of course, it is important to note that despite the wonderful start, nothing is guaranteed, as it will be March and early April weather that will dictate the fate of most of Brazil’s 2022 Safrinha. That being said, in case the production potential is at least mostly fulfilled with a Safrinha produc- tion close to 90 MMTs bringing the total corn crop near 115 MMTs (also a new record, 13 MMTs larger than 2020’s high), Brazil’s exports would be poised to shatter the old record of 40 MMTs, set in 2019. This year’s export potential is north of 43 MMTs, a number that would not only set a new record, but would again position Brazil atop the “Big Three” of Argentina, Ukraine and Brazil, three countries that together look to once again double the amount of corn the United States exports, as it did in 2019, and rebounding from last year’s poor performance vs the U.S. due to a multitude of factors, the main of which included the historical drought in Brazil that reduced the crop by around 25 MMTs! Speaking of droughts, this year’s drought re- duced (but still likely 2nd largest ever) soybean crop in Brazil will also play a role in enabling corn exports to potentially thrive starting in June/July. With less competition for exports especially after September, corn will have the full attention of Bra- zil’s export infrastructure.