Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

90 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 The Big Three’s recent influence in world corn production and mainly exports cannot be understat- ed. Argentina’s production growth has put it on the map as a consistent 30+ MMT exporter, with poten- tial to soon export 40 MMTs consistently (weather permitting). Brazil’s domestic corn ethanol industry’s growth has skyrocketed in recent years, providing yet another incentive for continued investment in the grain in the country. MD Commodities esti- mates that by 2030 Brazil’s corn production could potentially climb to at least 140 MMTs, a number that would allow for consistent exports above 50 MMTs, bringing Brazil and the U.S. neck and neck to the finish, competing for the world’s leadership in exports. This was inconceivable even 10 years ago, and it could soon become a reality. Ukraine has rebounded very strongly in 21/22 with record production above 40 MMTs and exports over 30 MMTs. Combined, the Big Three could soon repre- sent more than 70% of the world’s exports, up from around only 30% in 2010! World corn markets are riding a wave of high speculative interest, providing historically high pric- es to producers worldwide. These prices are incen- tivizing production growth as in Brazil’s Safrinha this year and weather permitting will bring a lot of corn to world markets very soon. Will demand be high enough to counter such potential growth in produc- tion? The answer to that question and of course, performance of weather, will be determining fac- tors for the fate of corn prices in the second half of 2022. It is also worth remembering that funds/ investors/speculators currently hold a near record long position in corn futures, adding an incredible amount of premium into prices… how long they will ride that wave, no one knows, but what we do know is that when they decide to “abandon ship” the out- come for prices is not necessarily the best.