Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

94 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 could reach 32-33MMT with more than 25MMT ex- ports facilities, Russia expects around 76-77MMT with 34MMT exports. Therefore, Russia has intro- duced duties and quotas in an effort to keep the do- mestic price. Today, the grain market has lost its former growth rates and there is hope for price stabilization after a rollback from multi-year highs. With the stock-to- use ratio of the world's major exporters already ap- proaching or at an all-time low following unfavorable drought seasons for some producers and stockpiling during buyers' lockdowns. Any disruption to export flows, however short-term, will lead to a sharp rising prices. A new wave of price hikes in the event that Russia intensi- fies hostilities, which is undoubtedly not fully taken into account in the cur- rent price, certainly does not play into the hands of the Russian authorities. In addition, Ukraine and Russia have several common sales markets, which will be faced with the question of the possibility of trade if Russia finds itself under more significant sanctions than it is today. Turkey, Egypt and a number of other markets that are strategically important for Russia can shift the issue from a trade to a political plane. And given that there is not much time left until the end of the season, and some markets are already being actively explored by competitors, the issue of foreign exchange earn- ings from wheat trade may become more acute. Most of the Ukrainian wheat is destined for the countries of the Middle East and Africa, and part- ly for Southeast Asia, which are highly dependent on imports because their production is limited in them. Ukrainian grain in these markets won due to the price. These markets are not the most solvent, and bread is traditionally the basis of the popula-