Miller Magazine Issue 146 February 2022

96 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / FEBRUARY 2022 can again be Russian threats of another encroach- ment on the borders of Ukraine - apart from Russia and Ukraine, there are no more significant players in the sunflower oil market. Bursa Malaysia Futures and all of its subsidiaries will be closed from 1 to 3 February for Malaysian Fed- eral Territory Day and Chinese New Year holidays. In China, the Dalian Commodity Exchange remained closed for the Chinese New Year. On the CBOT, soybean oil futures edged lower as fresh contractions in the Malaysian palm oil fu- tures market and increased profit-taking ahead of the start of the new month outweighed higher crude oil prices. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) es- timates that Indonesian palm oil exports will fall to 33.2 million tons this year, down 2.9% from 2021. However, a reduction in fertilizer use due to scar- city and higher prices is expected to impact crop yields and output this year. Extremely wet weather earlier this year will also affect production through- out the year. Meanwhile, Malaysian export data continued to show sharp declines as cargo surveyors, ITS and Amspec reported a 27% month-over-month decline in crude palm oil exports in January. The issue of la- bor shortage remains acute. Higher-than-expected domestic consumption this year, driven by stronger biodiesel demand coupled with lower production growth, contributed to lower export forecast for 2022. Brazilian soybean production estimates have been lowered again to 128.5MMT as crop losses in the southern states and parts of the central-west re- gion continue to be accounted for, local consultan- cy Agrural said on Monday, and this may not be the latest revision to the forecast. Agrural showed that as of January 27, 10% of soybean acreage had been harvested, up 8 points from the harvest rate seen at the same time in the previous year. According to local consulting company Safras & Mercado, Brazil's soybean harvest as of January 28 was 11.3% as of January 28. The soybean area in Brazil is estimated at 40.8 million hectares, and production is expect- ed at 132.3 million tons. Soybean harvest in Brazil's largest producing state, Mato Grosso, reached 31.8% as of Jan. 28, IMEA said. According to a December report, Mato Grosso is expected to produce a record soybean crop of 38.1 MMT this marketing year. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Produc- ers (Abiove) for the second time this month lowered its estimates of soybean production in Brazil due to drought. Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 135.8MMT, down 4.2MMT from previous estimates. Abiove also cut its 2022 soybean export forecast from 91.1MMT to 86.9MMT. However, refin- ing remained unchanged at 48MMT, up 1.5MMT from 2021, when refining is expected to reach 46.5MMT. AgResource Brasil sees production at 125.04MMT. Soybean acreage in Argentina has been reduced again to 16.3 million hectares, according to a BAGE report. This figure is 100,000 hectares lower than the previous forecast, with most of the reduction record-