Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

119 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / march 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will further disrupt global markets, will have negative consequences for global grain supplies in the short term, and by disrupting natu- ral gas and fertilizer markets, have nega- tive impacts for producers as they enter a new planting season. This could push up already-high food price inflation, and have serious consequences for low-income net- food importing countries. The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has roiled commodity markets and threatens global food security. Ongoing fall- out from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors have al- ready driven up food prices. Poor harvests in South Amer- ica, strong global demand, and supply chain issues have reduced grain and oilseed inventories and driven prices to their highest levels since 2011-2013. Vegetable oil prices have also been at record levels, reflecting the short South American soybean crop, reduced palm oil supplies due to harvest problems in Malaysia, and sharply increased use of palm and soybean oil for biodiesel production. Prices of key energy-intensive inputs like fuel, fertilizer and pesti- cides have also been at near-record levels. How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect global food security?