Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

125 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / march 2022 have big problems with corn seeding - that's a very bull- ish scenario. Some analysts are concerned that the war between two giant grain suppliers will cause a food crisis. Do you share these concerns? Depends on the length of the war. But global food pric- es which were close to stabilization in our view in early 2022 will continue to rise short-term. Some problems for consumers in rich regions like the EU or the US and that could be a disaster for poorer countries like Afghan- istan, Sudan...MENA region should be watched closely (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon...Northern African countries). During the previous interview, we talked about big risks for large food importers and since that time things have worsened substantially. There are some claims that some Middle East coun- tries are looking for suppliers other than the Black Sea due to the uncertainty. Are you worried about Russia could lose its market share in the Middle East? Not really. It's commodities markets, not retail ones. When exports resume the Black Sea wheat will return to its typical markets in Turkey, Egypt, and other desti- nations. As part of agreements signed during Russian leader Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, China lifts restrictions on imports of Russian wheat. What are Russia’s goals regarding the Chinese market? How the deal will im- pact the world wheat markets? China could become one of the top five destinations for Russian wheat when things settle. Bad news for French and Australian farmers first of all. However, I won't overestimate that fact - to serve more distant regions Russia will need to have larger corps and larg- er exports. It's not on cars unless current strict export taxation changes. How is Russia's wheat production outlook? Could you share the prospect for the 2022/23 season? The most recent Russian wheat crop forecast is 84.8 MMT (+8.9 MMT year over year). Ukrainian - 28.3 MMT (-3.8 MMT YoY). This doesn't reflect the most recent events. Ukrainian crop is likely to be affected by the war. There are active military operations in Southern Ukraine, where the key winter wheat regions are. Wheat has been seeded months ago but right now farmers need to start to apply fertilizer application and in many cases, they couldn't do that.