Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

The war between the world's two grain giants Russia and Ukraine is monitored with great concern by the grain markets. After Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine on 24th February, wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to the highest level since 2008. The conflict will have negative consequences for global grain supplies. It is feared that if the tension in the Black Sea is prolonged, prices will go even higher and the world could face a food crisis. The war in Ukraine comes at a moment when global food markets are already struggling with soar- ing prices, supply-chain disruptions and the continuing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The escalation of the conflict is putting grain markets into serious turmoil. Russia and Ukraine are top exporters of wheat and other grains. Almost 10 percent of world grain production comes from Russia, while Ukrainian production accounts for 3 percent of world production. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat. And Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat. Ukraine and Russian combined account for more than 30 percent of global wheat exports. The port of Odesa and the Black Sea serve as major lines for international grain shipments from Ukraine, and the country is also among the top exporters of barley, maize, sunflower, and other oilseeds. Russia and Ukraine are exporting millions of tonnes of grain to the Middle East, South Asia, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. “Availabilities in main exporting countries remain at multi-year lows. Any potential drop in supply from the Black Sea region will thus be difficult to compensate from other origins," warned the Agricultural Market Informa- tion System (AMIS). Answering Miller Magazine’s questions on the impacts of the war on the grain markets, Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Russia, points out that prolonged Russia-Ukraine war may push grain imports bills further. “Export flows have stopped apart from several vessels which have been loaded in Russian Black Sea ports. Chicago rallied 25%+, and if the war is not over shortly, it's not the end,” he stresses. He underlines that real effects will depend on how long the war will last. “Optimistic scenario - it ends relatively soon (i.e. March) and will see exports flowing in several weeks. Pessimistic one - it lasts for several months which implies that Ukraine will have big problems with corn seeding - that's a very bullish scenario” Sizov explains. Comprehensive news and analysis on the effects of the war on the grain industry will be covered in the following sections. I hope the guns will soon fall silent and that there will be peace again. editor Namık Kemal PARLAK millermagazine company/millermagazine millermagazine Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd. Gökevler Mah. 2312 Sok. No:16/37 Ginza Corner Plaza, Esenyurt / İstanbul - TURKEY T. +90 212 347 31 64 F. +90 212 212 02 04 www.millermagazine.com info@millermagazine.com On Behalf of Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd., Owner Zübeyde Kavraz Responsible Manager Namık Kemal Parlak Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak Editors Mustafa Yağmurlu Cemalettin Kanaş Sales and Marketing Burcu Çetin Ebru Ildan Sevin Art Director and Visual Design Alparslan Murat Aysu Corporate Communications Ahmet Hamdi Annaç Consultancy Board Ali İhsan Özkaşıkçı, Chairman of AUSD Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of GUSAD Erhan Özmen, GUSAD Honorary Chairman Bekir Bağış, Chairman of Çukurova Flour Industrialists Association Hasan Özmermer, Board Member of Özmermer Flour Derviş Toprak Mehmet Şerif Gültay Referee and Scientific Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Mustafa Bayram Prof. Gustavo Sosa Prof. Dr. Hazım Özkaya Prof. Dr. Harun Dıraman Asst. Prof. M. Kürşat Demir Asst. Prof. Halef Dizlek Asst. Prof. Mustafa Erbaş Publication Type Periodic (Monthly) Printing - Baskı İhlas Gazetecilik A.Ş. Merkez Mah. 29 Ekim Cad. No: 11 A 41 Yenibosna-Bahçelievler-İstanbul Tel: 0212 454 30 00 All copyrights belong to Parantez Publishing. © May not be used without permission. Responsibility of the ads belongs to the advertisers. ISSN 2718-031X COPYRIGHT PAGE War threatens global grain markets