Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

24 MILLER / march 2022 NEWS The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has increased wheat supply concerns in Middle East countries as their major reliance on Ukrainian and Russian wheat would be difficult to compensate from other markets. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat suppliers, account- ing for a combined 29% of global exports. Much of that wheat is exported to major buyers in the Middle East and North Africa such as Egypt, Turkey, and Lebanon. Analysts point out that Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens to dis- rupt grain exports from both countries to the Middle East and warn that Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Sudan are at great risk from a surge in prices and a spike in demand. Rising prices and insufficient supply have already affected economically-depressed countries in the region. Egypt, the most populous Arab state, relies on Russia and Ukraine for 85 percent of its wheat imports. In 2020, Egypt was the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, importing more than 3 million tons, almost 14% of Ukraine’s total wheat production. Egypt also bought 8.9 million tons of wheat from Russia in 2020. Egypt’s wheat consumption for 2021-22 is forecast to reach 21.3 million tons. Cairo says that it can rely on a strategic stockpile of wheat for nine months to offset a disruption to import supplies in the near term. Tunisia also relies on Ukrainian and Russian imports for 60 percent of its total wheat consumption. Neighbouring Algeria, which says it has a six-month supply, is Africa's second-largest wheat consumer and the world's fifth-larg- est grain importer. Ukraine was the source of 80 percent of the 600,000 to 650,000 tonnes of wheat imported annually by Lebanon. The United States can be an alternate supplier but ship- ments could take up to 25 days instead of seven. Lebanon has only been able to store around a month's worth of wheat since an explosion in August 2020 destroyed silos at its main port. The region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from the two countries. If those supplies are disrupted, "the Ukraine crisis could trigger renewed protests and instabil- ity" in several Middle East and North Africa countries, the Washington-based Middle East Institute said. As Ukraine crisis heats up, MENA fears for wheat supply