Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

30 MILLER / march 2022 NEWS The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) lifted its forecast for world cereal production in 2021 by 2.1 million tonnes in February and now it stands at 2 793 million tonnes, 0.8 per- cent higher year-on-year. The bulk of last month’s change relates to larg- er-than-previously estimated wheat outputs in Argentina and Australia, along with slightly higher production esti- mates in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Taking these recent revisions into account, the esti- mate for global wheat production in 2021 is now virtually on par with the 2020 outturn. By contrast, the forecast for world coarse grain production in 2021 has been trimmed by 0.2 percent, underpinned by cuts to sorghum produc- tion estimates in Burkina Faso, the Niger, and the Unit- ed States of America. Partly offsetting these reductions, maize production estimates have been raised in the Eu- ropean Union, Ukraine, and the United States of Ameri- ca, which registered its second largest crop on record in 2021. The global coarse grains 2021 forecast still stands 1.3 percent higher year-on-year at 1 501 million tonnes. FAO’s global rice production forecast for 2021 is now pegged at 517.1 million tonnes, up 0.7 percent from the 2020 record, but 1.3 million tonnes lower than anticipated in December. The revision primarily reflects a less buoy- ant official production assessment for China, which, com- bined with reductions for Nigeria and Nepal, outweighs upgrades to output estimates for Japan and Viet Nam. World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2022 have been lifted since December by 2.2 million tonnes to 824 million tonnes, only slightly lower than their opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2021/22 is projected at 28.7 percent, repre- senting a decline from the 2020/21 level of 29.4 per- cent, but still a comfortable level historically. Follow- ing last month’s upward revision of 2.8 million tonnes, global wheat inventories are now forecast near open- ing levels at 288 million tonnes. FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 stands at a record 481 million tonnes, up 1.0 million tonnes from December and an increase of 0.4 percent from the 2020/21 level. At 193 million tonnes, global wheat trade in 2021/22 (July/June) is forecast to rise by 2.0 percent from 2020/21, driven by stronger import demand from the Near East following reduced harvests in several countries. On the export side, record harvests are seen support- ing record export forecasts for Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine in 2021/22, which, along with higher shipments from the European Union, more than compensate for a decline in sales from Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America due to tighter availabilities. Cereal production and trade reaching record levels in 2021/22