Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

96 INTERVIEW MILLER / march 2022 Feeling the effects of drought, pandemic, increas- ing geopolitical risks, rising fertilizer and energy costs, the global grain industry is looking for ways to cope with this tough period. There are concerns about loss of production and quality for the next grain harvest season due to insufficient fertilizer use and drought. As the grain markets enter a period of increased vol- atility and uncertainty, Miller Magazine has engaged in an exclusive interview with Executive Director of Inter- national Grains Council Arnaud Petit to discuss the latest forecasts for global grain production, the effects of the pandemic on the industry and the preparations for the annual IGC Grains Conference to be held on 7 & 8 June 2022 in central London. Pointing out that Covid-19 crisis has stressed the im- portance of local supply and food security even in the grains value chain, Mr. Petit says, “Yet, the market reality shows us that global trade plays a strategic role in food security and sustainable food systems. Also, the crisis has highlighted the high degree of complexity of the global grains value chain”. International Grains Council released its latest Grain Market Report on 17th February. Can you share with us the key highlights of the report? Global total grains production in 2021/22 is forecast at a record 2,281m t, 3% higher year to year, as gains in maize (+71m t), wheat (+6m) and sorghum (+4m) more than compensate for reductions in barley (-13m) and other coarse grains (-8m). Linked to broad increases in consumption, particularly for feed, total use is seen ris- ing by 2% y/y, to 2,286m, also a new peak. Cumulative stocks are forecast to drop to a seven-year low, includ- ing a modest year-to-year reduction in the major export- ers. Mainly tied to a predicted pullback in Chinese maize imports, total grains trade is expected to dip by 1%, to 424m t., World soyabean production is forecast to decline by 15m t y/y, to 353m, on smaller harvests in South America owing to sustained suboptimal growing conditions. With supplies expected to tighten, utilisation is predicted to contract for the first time in 10 years, including falls in Brazil and Argentina – contrasting with prospects for re- cord US uptake. Combined end-season inventories are expected to contract sharply, mainly on a sizeable re- “The aggregate stocks in the eight major exporters of wheat could hit their lowest in nine years at the end of the current season, with the stocks-to-use ratio for that group at less than 15%, potentially the lowest on record. Exportable wheat supplies might remain rela- tively tight in the medium-term, as demonstrated by the IGC five-year baseline outlook.” Exportable wheat supply may remain tight in the medium-term Arnaud Petit Executive Director The International Grains Council (IGC)