Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

97 INTERVIEW MILLER / march 2022 duction in the three majors. World trade is seen broadly unchanged y/y, at 161m t. In the report, total grain stocks in 2021/22 are forecast at 596 million tones, marking a fifth successive drawdown. And inventories in the main wheat exporters are also set to tighten for a fourth successive season. Do you think the decreasing trend in stocks will continue? Indeed, aggregate stocks in the eight major exporters of wheat could hit their lowest in nine years at the end of the current season, with the stocks- to-use ratio for that group at less than 15%, potentially the lowest on record. The situation is even more serious if we look at global milling wheat sup- plies, as drought contributed to un- usually poor crops in Canada and the US this season. Exportable wheat supplies might remain relatively tight in the medium-term, as demonstrated by the IGC five- year baseline outlook (albeit that report was released more than one year ago in January 2021). The projec- tions suggested that, in absolute terms, demand for milling wheat would remain the driver of consumption, therefore, supply prospects were to remain a crucial element of information for a bullish market. The situ- ation in the global maize market might tighten some- what in the medium-run despite projected productivity gains. China’s demand as well as domestic processing in some countries are expected to keep the market dy- namic over the next five years. What are Council’s global wheat and corn supply and demand prospects for 22/23? Current grain prices should support plantings in 2022/23 despite inflated input costs and we expect the global area for wheat and maize to be relatively steady year-on-year. It may be still too early to forecast produc- tion volumes due to various uncertain factors, including the rate of fertilizer application and weather, notably in parts of the EU and the US. In terms of wheat consump- tion, we anticipate a 1% annual increase in the season ahead, broadly matching the prior five-year average. This is expected to be centred on food consumption gains in Asia. Steady growth is foreseen in food use, but poten- tially ample availabilities of alternatives, including maize, may cap wheat feeding in some consumers, notably in Europe and China. Nonetheless, assuming a continued uptrend in animal protein demand, pro- jected global feed use is seen close to the prior year's record level. Regarding maize and ahead of the northern hemisphere spring planting season, high input costs and limited nearby fertiliser supplies could poten- tially result in some pullback in maize acreage in some growers. However, given strong market prices, only mi- nor reductions are expected in the US, Ukraine and the EU. Including tenta- tive projections for further increases in South American sowings, which are at least seven months away, the global har- vested area is seen little changed y/y, at a larger than average 204.1m ha. With Source: IGC Source: IGC