Miller Magazine Issue: 147 March 2022

98 INTERVIEW MILLER / march 2022 significant uncertainty about levels of fertiliser applica- tions, there is some potential downside risk to 2022/23 average yields. Assuming seasonal weather and better results south of the equator, production is provisionally placed around 2% higher y/y. We have seen a dramatic increase in the prices of fertilizer. Given that it is the biggest input in crop pro- duction, how do you think grain producers will cope with high fertilizer prices? How the current price of fertilizer will affect farmers' planting decisions? Despite a recent mild decline in urea values, interna- tional fertiliser prices remain significantly higher y/y amid gains in natural gas prices and some export restrictions. As northern hemisphere farmers prepare to apply inputs to 2022/23 winter crops emerging from dormancy, as well as consider spring planting options, the rise in in- put costs has led to significant uncertainties about possible supply implications for the coming season. As farmers plan their crops on a rotational approach, this limits the po- tential for broad swings between crops. But the opportunity/cost ratio, as well as limited access to finance, might reduce fertilizer ap- plication rates, with potentially lower yields or grain quality for the milling sector. But again, we are still far from the harvest in the northern hemisphere and other factors may have a significant impact. The grain market focused on South American weather, namely La Nina. Why does La Nina matter? The La Nina weather event brings exces- sive dryness to parts of South America, with a number of consequences. First of all, it has had a negative impact on 2021/22 maize and soybean production prospects in Brazil and Argentina. Secondly, it raises addition- al challenges for logistics. For instance, ex- tremely low water levels on the Parana river have been a bottleneck for shipping from Paraguay to Argentina as the number of car- goes, and the tonnages carried, moving to Atlantic ports must be reduced. What lessons do you think the world grain industry/market has learned from the Covid-19 pandemic? What will be the key trends for the grain market in the post-pandemic world? It is right that the Covid crisis has stressed the importance of local supply and food se- curity even in the grains value chain. Yet, the market reality shows us that global trade plays a strategic role in food security and sustainable food sys- tems. Also, the crisis has highlighted the high degree of complexity of the global grains value chain. This is why the number of restrictive measures to trade is very few today. At the end of January this year, the IGC, togeth- er with the government of Ukraine, held a webinar on contingency plans in the grains sector, whereby expe- riences were shared, with members providing updates on national regulatory frameworks. We can observe a shift in the approach to contingency planning from the usual public stockholding to facilitation measures for the domestic market to work properly. The amount of infor- mation which public and the private sectors are ready to share is crucial, being critical to the smooth and efficient functioning of the world grains market.