Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

100 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / MAY 2022 notably in France. Conversely, area planted to grains expanded in Hungary, driven by the growing in-country opportunities in industri- al uses, and in Ireland, as the country gears up for increased low- er-yielding spring-grains plantings. In the case of corn, planted area in MY2022/23 is projected down, despite favorable price signals, and may shift towards less input-intensive spring-planted crops, such as sunflower. EU wheat area is expected to slightly decline by 0.5 percent in MY2022/23. While French and Spanish wheat growers planted less wheat, producers in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, and Romania increased slightly their wheat plantings, leading to an overall almost stable wheat area in the EU. Recent announcements by the EU Commission to allow farmers to plant crops on set aside and fallow lands will not impact the MY2022/23 wheat crop. EU wheat production mostly consists of winter wheat, which has already been planted in the Fall of 2021 for harvest in the summer of 2022 and only to a much lesser extent spring wheat. EU WHEAT PRODUCTION TO DECREASE The MY2022/23 EU grain crop is currently forecast at 286 MMT, down from the 292.9 MMT estimated for MY2021/22, driven by the reduction in area planted to grain and the more conservative yield expectations. The extent of farmers’ willingness to use costly agri- cultural inputs, and spring precipitation amounts, will be particularly critical to determine the EU’s final grain output. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stressed the EU fertilizers’ sup- ply chain, sending the already high fertilizer prices, to record highs. Fertilizer purchase coverage varies on a case-by-case basis. Most EU farmers purchased their fertilizers ahead of the price spike and are expected to carry out normal operations. However, those who delayed their purchases may reduce amounts applied in spring, especially in areas where low soil moisture prevents fertilizers from achieving full performance. This latter situation, combined with soaring prices of other agricultural inputs, such as fuel or plant protection products, is projected to have a limited negative influ- ence on the EU’s grain yields. If the war extends for several more months, the situation may be more worrying for MY2023/24 as the 2023 EU grain crop could be more severely impacted by the re- duced access to fertilizers. EU wheat production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 percent to 135.3 MMT in MY2022/23, driven by smaller expected production in Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Romania, and Spain, not being offset by higher crop expectations in Denmark, Germany, Poland, Baltic Countries, and Sweden. Weather conditions up to the harvest can still play a significant role in final production volumes. EU corn production is also forecast to decline to 67.5 MMT in MY2022/23, down by 4.3 percent from MY2021/22. Average corn yield throughout the EU is forecast to drop by 2.2 percent after the above-average yields registered in MY2021/22, due to challenges in ensuring adequate inputs and reduced soil moisture. CONSUMPTION Total consumption of grains in MY2022/23 is projected at 259.4 MMT, down from the 260.6 MT estimated for MY2021/22. The initial favorable outlook for grain consumption in MY2021/22 has been revised down. While less optimistic prospects apply to feed and industrial uses, food consumption holds some expansion potential. EU feed use of wheat and barley is forecast to remain stable in MY2022/23, while corn and minor grains feed uses will account for the bulk of the downwards correction of total grain feed uses. Whet food use are already increasing in MY2021/22 as the COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions affecting tourism and the HRI sector (Hotels, Restaurants, and Institutions) are being lifted. Moreover, population growth in most EU Member States, but espe- cially in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, fueled by several million refugees coming from Ukraine, is anticipated to drive wheat food use up.