Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 103 MILLER / MAY 2022 While we are discussing how much profit we will lose due to a disruption in supplies or the need to change something in the usual order of life, 1.25 MMT of grain loaded on boats will soon begin to deteriorate in the ports of Ukraine. We have no right to ask to refuse food for political reasons, but we can ask the UN to organize an escort for ships with Ukrainian grain. Very soon, the world will begin to physically trade the new crop of 2022/23 marketing year, and if the current circumstances do not change, then another round of food inflation awaits us. Of course, Russian analysts argue that there will be no famine, otherwise it will be Russia's fault. But even the fact that bread has risen in price so much that all countries are looking for ways to consume less al- ready suggests that the balance has been seriously upset. Earlier, we tried to find an answer to the question of whether India can heal the Ukrainian wound. India's wheat crop was expected to reach a record high and possibly exceed 110MMT. This gave the market a ghostly hope for record exports. The Government of India was inspired by this idea and supported it in every possible way. Despite problems with the logistics and quality of Indian wheat, the Government of India held a series of meetings with representatives of the countries of North Africa and the Middle East and embarked on the path of attempts to Ukrainian wound Elena Faige Neroba Business Development Manager Maxigrain