Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 105 MILLER / MAY 2022 volumes. And given that for Romania, Poland and other countries through which Ukraine is trying to organize ex- ports, this is also the low season, then optimism quickly dissipates. In two or three months the situation will wors- en. Europe will harvest its harvest, as will Ukraine. And there will be several times more grain for transportation, storage and loading. Port capacities can't handle it. And buying grain from Russia is not only paying a fee to the Russian budget, financing the purchase of weapons and killing Ukrainians, but also a direct path to dependence on Russia, not only in terms of energy. At the same time, Russia itself is striving to become as independent as possible from the world order and rules. The launch of our own grain exchange was the first signal. Subsequently, we may face demands to pay for grain in rubles or the practice of creating our own trade rules in order to move away from traditional norms and traditions. In fact, this is blackmail by hunger. More- over, Russia's contribution to inflation is undeniable: quotas and duties on Russian grain have been support- ing world prices for several years now. Now, globally, Russia is trying to impose its own rules of the game on everyone, but do they have the right to do so? The ques- tion is rhetorical. Locally, the seizure of the territories of Ukraine and the ongoing military aggression disrupt not only the ex- port of the existing crop, but also the sowing. The fact that Russia exports grain from Ukraine illegally and sells it through Crimea despite sanctions, forging documents, is no longer surprising and does not cause outrage, alas. But the area under a number of crops in Ukraine will decrease, and due to difficulties with the delivery and application of fertilizers, the yield will be lower. While we are discussing how much profit we will lose due to a disruption in supplies or the need to change something in the usual order of life, 1.25 MMT of grain loaded on boats will soon begin to deteriorate in the ports of Ukraine. Just think: if from 1 kg of wheat we can make bread for 4 people… That's enough to feed 5 bil- lion people in a day! And this is only the grain that is closed in the vessels. But there is still grain in the silo, and the grain that could grow, but the war prevented this. We have no right to ask to refuse food for political rea- sons, but we can ask the UN to organize an escort for ships with Ukrainian grain. And then think about investing in Eu- ropean port infrastructure, while Russian soldiers are tram- pling on bread that your children could eat.