Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine has caused major disrup- tions to the supply of grains. Both countries are key exporters of agricultural products. The Russian Federation and Ukraine col- lectively account for about 30 percent and 15 percent of global wheat and maize exports, as well as a combined share of around 80 percent of sunflower seed products trade. The disruptions have exacerbated existing stresses in grain markets following the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, commod- ity price volatility has surged, with food prices reaching levels not seen since the 2007-08 price spikes. Concerns about food security have already prompted ad hoc policy responses to bol- ster national self-sufficiency. Disruptions to wheat exports from Ukraine have already affect- ed several importing countries, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt and Lebanon. As a result, several countries have introduced trade policy measures that either re- duce or ban wheat exports. On current projections, global supplies of grain for 2022 are adequate. So, will grain production meet the demand in the 2022-2023 season? Amid uncertainty and volatility in the mar- ket, International Grains Council (IGC) has shared its first 2022/23 supply and demand projections for all commodities. IGC cut total global grain production by 12 million tons, trade by 9 million tons, and carryover stocks by 26 million tons from its 2021/22 forecast. Global wheat production in the 2022/23 season is projected at 780 million tons, down 1 mt from 2021/22. While consumption growth is forecast to be slower than average, end-season in- ventories are seen sharply down. “The world wheat harvested area in 22/23 is projected to drop by 1% y/y, with anticipated losses in Ukraine, Morocco, China and India outweighing gains in North and South America. Linked to some difficult weather and reduced fertilizer use, yields are forecast slightly below the long- term trend, potentially limiting global production to 780m t, lower y/y,” says IGC. editor Namık Kemal PARLAK millermagazine company/millermagazine millermagazine Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd. Gökevler Mah. 2312 Sok. No:16/37 Ginza Corner Plaza, Esenyurt / İstanbul - TURKEY T. +90 212 347 31 64 F. +90 212 212 02 04 www.millermagazine.com info@millermagazine.com On Behalf of Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd., Owner Zübeyde Kavraz Responsible Manager Namık Kemal Parlak Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak Editors Mustafa Yağmurlu Cemalettin Kanaş Sales and Marketing Burcu Çetin Hayriye Turan Art Director and Visual Design Özer Duman Corporate Communications Ahmet Hamdi Annaç Consultancy Board Ali İhsan Özkaşıkçı, Chairman of AUSD Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of GUSAD Erhan Özmen, GUSAD Honorary Chairman Bekir Bağış, Chairman of Çukurova Flour Industrialists Association Hasan Özmermer, Board Member of Özmermer Flour Derviş Toprak Mehmet Şerif Gültay Referee and Scientific Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Mustafa Bayram Prof. Gustavo Sosa Prof. Dr. Hazım Özkaya Prof. Dr. Harun Dıraman Asst. Prof. M. Kürşat Demir Asst. Prof. Halef Dizlek Asst. Prof. Mustafa Erbaş Publication Type Periodic (Monthly) Printing - Baskı İhlas Gazetecilik A.Ş. Merkez Mah. 29 Ekim Cad. No: 11 A 41 Yenibosna-Bahçelievler-İstanbul Tel: 0212 454 30 00 All copyrights belong to Parantez Publishing. © May not be used without permission. Responsibility of the ads belongs to the advertisers. ISSN 2718-031X COPYRIGHT PAGE Uncertainty in grain markets
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