Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

32 MILLER / MAY 2022 NEWS According to the spring 2022 edition of the short-term outlook report published by the European Commis- sion, EU grain production is projected to reach 297.7 million tonnes for the 2022 harvest. The Commission forecast that EU grain exports would increase by almost 40% to 41.4 million tonnes in 2022/23 season. Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has significantly disturbed global agricultural markets. This has created more uncertainty regarding the fu- ture availability of grains and oilseeds, and has add- ed a layer of instability to already tense markets. The EU is largely self-sufficient for food, with a massive agri-food trade surplus. Nevertheless, there are some concerns around affordability due to high market pric- es and inflationary trends. OUTLOOK FOR EU CEREALS IN 2022/23 These issues form the basis for the spring 2022 edi- tion of the short-term outlook for EU agricultural mar- kets report published by the European Commission on 5 April 2022. The report presents a detailed over- view of the latest trends and prospects for a range of agri-food sectors. “The EU is largely self-sufficient for most agricultural commodities, in particular wheat, dairy and meat. The supply of the EU food market is therefore not at risk for those key products, even with the additional demand due to the millions of refugees arriving in the EU to flee the war. Reduced imports of maize, wheat, rapeseed and sunflower oil and meals from Ukraine will however have an impact, especially on feed prices and for the EU food processing indus- try,” the Commission said. “The main concern remains the level of prices. As a result of the war, commodity prices (from energy to fertilisers to wheat to soybeans) have skyrocketed. They are expected to remain high this year and will further weigh on pre-existing increas- ing inflation levels. This situation raises questions on the farmers’ capacity to purchase fertilisers, feed and to pay their energy bill, particularly for farmers with energy-intensive and feed-intensive farms. The sit- uation also raises questions on food affordability for low-income households. EU grains exports to increase by 40% in 2022/23