Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

68 COVER STORY MILLER / MAY 2022 Figures have been put together against the backdrop of the ongoing Black Sea conflict and, as such, prospects are especially tentative given a myriad of uncertainties, including outlooks for acreage and yields. The world wheat harvested area in 22/23 is projected to drop by 1% y/y, with anticipated losses in Ukraine, Morocco, China and India outweighing gains in North and South America. Linked to some difficult weather and reduced fertiliser use, yields are forecast slightly below the long-term trend, potential- ly limiting global produc- tion to 780m t, lower y/y. Early-April rains only partly alleviated concerns about dryness in northern and central Europe, including in parts of France and Germany, with more re- quired. EU production is forecast to decline by 2% y/y, to 135.5m t. The early production outlook remains favourable in Rus- sia, with good soil moisture reserves in most areas. Yields are predicted to be better than average, potentially lifting output to 82.5m t (+10%). Partly linked to difficulties accessing fields in con- flict-affected eastern and southern Ukraine, winter wheat aban- donment is expected to be much higher than normal. Amid sig- nificant uncertainties, production is tentatively forecast 41% lower y/y, at 19.4m t. Drought lingered across much of the US southern Plains. As at mid-April, 30% of the winter crop was rated in good or excellent condition (53% year ago). Spring sowings made limited progress under cold conditions, including snow in some areas, advancing to 8% complete (18%). All-wheat production in the US is provision- ally forecast at 49.9m t (+12% y/y). In the run up to the spring plant- ing season, snowmelt only partially recharged soil moisture reserves in West- ern Canada, where more precipitation is needed. Based on expectations for a rise in area and assuming near-average yields, total output could rebound to 31.6m t (+46% y/y). Harvesting in India progressed quickly under very hot, dry condi- tions, with output now seen at a maximum of 105m t. Heavy autumn rains and flooding were problematic for planting and early crop establishment in China, with unusually poor conditions reported in some regions late last year. However, given adequate moisture reserves and limited winterkill, the outlook has stabilised in recent months. Production is forecast to drop by 2% y/y, to 135.0m t. The world wheat harvested area in 22/23 is projected to drop by 1% y/y, with anticipated losses in Ukraine, Morocco, China and India outweighing gains in North and South Amer- ica. Linked to some difficult weather and reduced fertiliser use, yields are forecast slightly below the long-term trend, potentially limiting global production to 780m t, lower y/y. Prospects for global grains and oilseeds production in 2022/23