Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

69 COVER STORY MILLER / MAY 2022 Elsewhere, with extremely dry weather severely limiting acre- age and yields, Morocco's crop is projected to slump to a 15-year low of 2.3m t, down 69% from the prior season's exceptional result. At 200m ha, global maize harvested area is projected 2% lower y/y, potentially the first contraction in four seasons, with re- ductions in Ukraine, the US and China seen more than offsetting expected gains in South America. Assuming trend yields, cumu- lative production is placed at 1,197m t (-1% y/y). Solid prices and the temporary relaxation of greening rules for fallow land and nitrogen fixing crops could support a modest ex- pansion in EU maize area. However, with high input costs likely to curb upside, production is projected to increase only slightly, to 71.0m t (+1% y/y). Amid infrastructure damage and risks accessing fields in key northern growing areas, acreage in Ukraine is set to fall sharply in 2022/23. The area could drop by 40% y/y, to 3.3m ha, potentially a 12-year low. US harvested area is projected to fall by 4% y/y. Primarily be- cause of unseasonably cold weather in some parts of the Corn Belt, sowings are off to a slow start. Based on trend yields, pro- duction is tentatively pegged at 376.6m t (-2% y/y). With some area expected to be rotated back into soyabeans in northeastern China, maize acreage is forecast to drop by 2% y/y. Assuming trend growth in yields, output is projected to be fractionally higher compared to the prior season, at 273.0m t. Amid tight supplies and elevated values, world soyabean har- vested area is predicted to expand in 2022/23, by 2%, to a peak of 133m ha. Nevertheless, with production prospects ultimately hinging on a potential recovery in yields in the southern hemi- sphere, the Council's projection for a record outturn, placed at 383m t (+10% y/y), is highly tentative. In the US, where spring fieldwork has commenced, 2022/23 plantings are officially predicted to expand by 4% y/y. However, the final number could turn out different. In the period since US- DA's survey-based assessment was undertaken in early March, relative new crop futures prices have moved solidly in favour of maize. However, many factors will be influential in determining the final seeding mix, including cost considerations (particularly in relation to inputs) and spring weather. Assuming trend yields, production is seen at a peak of 126.0m t (120.7m previous year). Early indications point to a favourable monsoon for India's sum- mer-sown crops. With the government mindful that world market supplies of vegetable oils are tight, increased state support could encourage farmers to plant more land to oilseeds, including soy- abeans (+3% y/y). With trend yields, 2022/23 output is predicted at 13.1m t, little changed y/y. In China, a rebound in plantings is anticipated amid state efforts to encourage production. At 17.5m t, output is seen up by 7% y/y. The Council tentatively predicts the sixteenth consecutive year of area expansion in Brazil, although gains may be slimmer than in the past. Based on a 1% y/y increase in sowings and a recovery in productivity, 2022/23 output is projected at a high of 140.5m t (123.5m previous year). Join the IGC Conference on the 8th of June to hear experts address a range of relevant topics surrounding world markets for grains and oilseeds. https://www.igc.int/en/conference/programme.aspx