Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

78 COVER STORY MILLER / MAY 2022 From the start of the war on 24 February 2022 and till the end of Apr 2022, Russian wheat export reached over 4 MMT. It is alarming, as it is twice more than during the same time last year. Moreover, when starting negotiating business, most traders talk about Russian grain offers and how cheap they are in comparison to other origins. In the best case, the Russian factor is used as a tool of price pressure in negotiations. In the worst case, importers are indeed buying Russian grain. According to AgriCensus, “during October-February 2021/22, Russian wheat was traded $310-340/MT FOB Novorossiisk. After the war, the price jumped to $430 and at the start of May 2022 it became $390/MT FOB Nov- orossiisk”. Russia has exported 4 MMT wheat in March- April 2022, which is about 1.6 bln USD, given the price range during the period which stranded at $380-400/mt FOB on offer side and trades being signed at few dollars below that. At the same time, the export tax paid during the period was at 87-120 USD range per tonne, thus the rough idea of the amount that went directly into the coun- try’s budget is at 400 MLN USD. The country’s budget goes for a huge list of purposes, including the financing of the war in Ukraine. Currently, the Russian authorities calling for the world to avoid sanctions for the agriculture, as it is one of the key suppliers in the world. But they forgot that the cri- sis has started because of its own decision to invade Ukraine, and thus blocking of another key world supplier of food, along with itself as both countries are exporting from Black Sea. Plus, it was predictable that the Western While all world is focusing on stopping crude oil imports from Russia, the invading country still has funds for war continuation. One of the sources, from which these funds are coming, is continued Russian wheat export. Moreover, during the week up to 1 May, Russian wheat export reached its peak since the start of the war on 24 February 2022. This question is much harder to “sanction”, as depending nations cannot just stop eating. Moreover, we all know very well, that Russia is itself the country, who is used to playing with “sanctions” imposition for wheat export from its side, ruling the world food safety. Russian wheat exports maintain pace