Miller Magazine Issue: 149 May 2022

88 INTERVIEW MILLER / MAY 2022 Christopher A. Ripple University of Virginia School of Law “What is more troubling about the current situation is that food and fertilizer prices reached alarming levels even before the invasion of Ukraine, with supply chains still recovering from the pandemic. Against this backdrop, the potential cascade of food sys- tem impacts from the war in Ukraine is difficult to overstate.” Food markets face major impact from Ukraine conflict Food markets rocked by the COVID-19 pandemic are taking a second major blow from the conflict in Ukraine. Christopher A. Ripple, a lecturer at the University of Virgin- ia School of Law who teaches the course American Food Governance, explains how global food insecurity could expand and why food markets are so vulnerable. Mr. Ripple, please give us the big picture. What is the possible impact of the conflict in Ukraine on food mar- kets? Our food system relies on the production of a relatively small number of large food commodity exporters. Ukraine and Russia are two of the most significant. As a result of the war, harvested crops in Ukraine will not make it to mar- ket, and Ukrainian farmers will be prevented from planting for the next harvest. Russia is banning exports of some commodities and its future exports are in doubt because of sanctions and uncertainties about whether its farmers will have access to seeds and other inputs. Commodity markets are responding with volatility and price increases reminiscent of a global food price crisis in the mid-2000s, prompting concerns about whether we are entering a sim- ilar crisis. Fertilizer and energy prices also are rising because of the war in Ukraine. How should we understand these markets in relation to the impact on food systems? Russia and Belarus are significant exporters of fertilizers relied on by farmers across the world. Russia has restricted exports of its own fertilizers since the invasion and sanctions against Be- larus will contract the fertilizer export market further. Fertilizers will be more expensive, prohibitively so for some farmers, and in some cases they will not be available. If this leads to reduced use and lower crop yields, this will compound the food security risk from the war. The impact of the conflict on energy markets is also signif- icant. Russia is a significant exporter of crude oil and natural gas. At a general level, industrialized agriculture and its global supply chains depend on fuel. Higher fuel prices from the war mean higher production and transport costs and higher food prices. But the impact is also important in two other respects. First, natural gas is not simply a fuel in the making of fertilizers; it is an ingredient in a chemical process that relies on hydrogen from natural gas to convert atmospheric nitrogen into a form that can be used by plants. In Europe, which depends on Russia for natural gas, large fertilizer companies are reducing production