Miller Magazine Issue: 150 June 2022

92 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / JUNE 2022 growth domestically, with demand for Canadian export grain products on the rise from global markets. Cana- dian grains are in demand around the world because of their quality, nutrition and value. Canada is a leading global exporter of grain and holds the position as the world’s largest exporter of durum wheat and oats. Wheat, oats and barley are planted on almost 14 million hectares each year, producing almost 46 mil- lion tonnes of food each year. Over the last five years (2017-2021) Canada’s exports (grain and products) ac- count for: •83% of durum production •69% of non-durum wheat production •67% of oat production; •33% of barley production The Canadian grain industry generated a record $32.2 billion in farm cash receipts in 2021, with exports also setting a record by value at more than $24.5 bil- lion. Wheat is Canada’s largest field crop grown. Ca- nadian wheat is shipped around the world to over 84 countries. Grain markets continue to face a period of uncer- tainty and volatility. COVID-19 had resulted in transpor- tation labor shortages and high transportation costs. Markets are now challenged by tight world grain sup- plies due to the widespread drought in North Ameri- can grain-producing areas in the summer of 2021, low- er stocks in major exporting countries, reduced supply from the Black Sea, and export restrictions and em- bargoes impacting the trade and prices of grain and fertilizer. Therefore, Canada's grain supply this season is important for world food security. “Tight global wheat supplies could get a needed boost as Canadian farmers are expected to sharply increase acreage for spring planting. A robust crop in Canada, the world’s biggest producer of spring wheat, would help alleviate worldwide shortages sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” says Gro Intelligence in its reports published on 27th April. For 2022‑2023 season, Canadian producers are expected to react to the strong prices in the mar- ket by maximizing acreage planted and assuming a return to trend or just below trend yields, total field crop production and supply is expected to return to a more normal level. Dry conditions remain however, particularly in the southern and central portions of the western Prairies where timely precipitation this spring and throughout the growing season will be needed to achieve trend yields. Record low carry-in stocks combined with a significant increase in exports are expected to result in carry-out stocks remaining rel- atively tight. WHEAT PRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, production of wheat, corn, barley and oats is forecast to increase 30 percent to 58 million tonnes (mt) in 2022/23 season over last season. The most significant downside risk to this outlook is the persistent drought conditions in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan, which are primary cereal-growing areas in Canada. While winter wheat was the second most prevalent wheat type produced in Canada in 2021/22 season (after spring wheat), USDA’s Ottawa post predicts that a return to trendline yields will mean that durum wheat will again become the second-most widely grown wheat in Canada, reducing winter wheat to third place in 2022/23. Durum area as a share of total wheat area has been fairly stable over the past twenty years, rang- ing between 15 percent and 26 percent of total wheat area, depending on prices. Durum is primarily grown in southern Saskatchewan, where soil and climate are typically most suitable. For 2022-23, total durum wheat supply is projected to increase 75% due to an increase in seeded area