Miller Magazine Issue: 150 June 2022

93 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / JUNE 2022 and a gradual return to average yields. Ca- nadian durum wheat production is pegged at 5.52 mt. Durum wheat exports are ex- pected to increase to 4.3 mt, about 72% of supply, led by import demand from North Africa where poor cli- matic conditions are expected to negative- ly impact the region’s supply. Domestic use is forecast to return to average levels at 0.9 mt, and carry out stocks are forecast to double to 0.9 mt. For 2022-23, total wheat supply (excluding durum) is projected at 29.04 mt, up 20% compared to the pre- vious year, with an increase in seeded area and a re- turn to trend yields. Production is pegged at 25.64 mt, 35% more than the previous year. Exports are forecast to increase on increased do- mestic supplies. Further, the distribution of Canada’s wheat will likely change, as a result of Russia’s inva- sion of Ukraine, if Ukraine is unable to harvest its win- ter wheat crop. Countries such as Indonesia, Bangla- desh, Morocco, and Tunisia typically depend on both Ukraine and Canada for their wheat supplies. From Canada, these countries import Canadian Western Red Spring (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Morocco) and Canadian durum (Indonesia, Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia), while they import primarily winter wheat from Ukraine. Canada’s winter wheat is most commonly sold in the Americas, but strong demand for mid-/low-protein wheat in the Middle East, North Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, and South Africa may lead to diversification of winter wheat exports to these regions in 2022/23 sea- son. Statistics Canada revised up wheat exports slightly to 17.25 mt, that is about 59% of total supply, under expectations of increased global demand following declining supply and trade from the Black Sea region. Closing stocks were trimmed 0.3 mt, now forecast at 3.8 mt, still up 15% compared to the previous year. BARLEY PRODUCTION For 2022-23, the Canadian barley outlook is for sharply lower car- ry-in stocks, a slightly smaller area, better yield, larger produc- tion and supply, great- er domestic use and exports, higher end- ing stocks and a lower average price. Total barley supply is pro- jected at 10.95 mt, 40% higher than 2021- 22 and the fourth highest since 2010. This is largely due to a 52% increase in the production forecast, assuming a return to normal weather conditions and trend yields for the 2022 growing season, and average abandon- ment rates on the Prairies. Barley exports are forecast to increase on in- creased domestic supplies. China has become an important buyer of Canadian feed barley in recent years. Although demand from China can be unpre- dictable, the country has consistently purchased between 1.4 and 3.3 mt each marketing year since 2018. CORN PRODUCTION For 2022-23, Canadian corn outlook is for a small- er supply, lower demand and ending stocks, as well as lower average price. Corn planted area is forecast to increase marginally, while production is forecast to decrease slightly because yields are projected to decline from record rates and return closer to trend- line yields. Planting decisions will be guided by high crop prices, but also high input costs. Several ana- lysts suggested that some farmers may switch from corn to soybeans this year to save on input costs. Corn is a high-input crop, requiring more fertilizer than alternative crops (e.g., soybeans, wheat) grown in Canada’s leading corn-growing province of Ontar- io. Canadian corn supply is projected to decrease by 12% from 2021-22 to 17.8 mt, based on projections for a 1% reduction in carry-in stocks, a 3% drop in production and a 33% fall in imports. Total domestic demand is projected to decrease by 13% from 2021-22, mainly reflecting lower feed demand in Western Canada. Industrial use is pro- jected to increase. Exports are expected to be at an av- erage level. Carry-out stocks are projected to decrease from 2021-22 and to the lowest level since 2015-2016.