Miller Magazine Issue: 150 June 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 95 MILLER / JUNE 2022 “When you see again food prices skyrocketing after doubled prices or even empty shelves, please make sure you understand who did this to you. Nobody knows if Russia and Ukraine will be able to supply their typically export volumes. As usually, we launch another unusual season.” Week ahead WASDE, Black Sea news and weather are market drivers. Corn planting window closed these days in the Northern hemisphere. Russia’s willingness to establish an export corridor, month-end spec liq- uidation and waning export demand in the US. China hasn’t purchased notable quantities from the US since April and allowed Brazilian corn. That means Beijing doesn’t believe in Russian intentions. As Brazil going to in- crease exports from Paraguay, it can add a few million tons of corn to their export potential same time. Safrinha harvest has started in Mato Grosso where IMEA reported pace at 6% done and ahead of zero average. Now that yield results will be available the trade can determine production for the region (expected near 36-38 MMT vs Conab’s latest at 40 MMT). If the lower estimates are realized, the total Brazil crop will reach 110-112 MMT and below the latest USDA estimate at 116 MMT. IHS also lowered their Brazil crop estimate to 113 MMT vs 115 last month. Parana harvest should begin soon. The EPA issued official US’s biofuel blending volumes for 2022 that were slightly below the previously proposed numbers. The final volume for 2022 was listed at 20.63 bln gal vs 20.77 with the reduction in cellulos- ic biofuels. The ethanol mandate for 2022 was set at 15.0 bln gal vs 13.79 in 2021. The EPA recognizes that conventional ethanol use will likely fall Another unusual season, as usual Elena Faige Neroba Business Development Manager Maxigrain