Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

101 ARTICLE MILLER / JULY 2022 Black Sea hostilities, focusing on deliveries to Near East Asia and Africa. The discussion also covered possible export and import policy developments, which might influence global trade flows in the near- term. RAPESEED/CANOLA Global trade in rapeseed/canola was forecast to decline markedly in 2021/22, almost entirely reflect- ing the impact of a plunge in production and avail- abilities in Canada, the world’s dominant exporter. With the shortfall in exportable supplies resulting in a spike in international prices, key importers have ra- tioned demand, switching a portion of overall needs to alternatives sources of protein and vegetable oils, chiefly soyabean derivatives, but also sunflowerseed products. The situation also comes in the face of a sizeable expansion of processing in major producers and exporters in recent years in response to growing shipments of rapeseed/canola products – typically from Canada to the US and China. Furthermore, in the EU, by far the largest importer of rapeseed/cano- la, recent years has seen an increasing reliance on the world market as domestic production has fallen sharply. This workshop discussed the risks associated with a market where the bulk of global shipments are heavi- ly concentrated in the hands of just a small number of exporters – in the case of rapeseed/canola, Canada, Australia and Ukraine typically account for more than 90% of volumes. A key theme of the workshop was also to explore ways in which consumers can mitigate risk and adapt to periods of excessive price volatility. PULSES World pulses trade has expanded by 30% in the past ten years, with most regions contributing to the uptrend in demand. Nevertheless, Asia is by far the most important consuming region, with shipments typically accounting for more than half of traded vol- umes, shaped by increasing populations, rising in- comes and evolving food consumption trends. Given the market’s sheer size, changes in the policy back- drop can have a profound impact on global import demand: moreover, volumes fell sharply in 2018 af- ter India – the world’s biggest consumer – imposed restrictions on arrivals as a means of protecting the local market. Other key buyers in the region include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey and China. The workshop discussed prospects for global trade in 2022 and beyond, highlighting existing and emerg- ing trends that will likely shape volumes moving for- ward. Panellists also touched upon potential risks, as well as the role of government policy.