Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

104 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / JULY 2022 curing and distributing more rice and less wheat in its food security programs. As a result, overall wheat consumption in India is forecast to decline, while rice consumption is forecast to rise. Unlike wheat, India rice supplies are plentiful in 2022/23. Rice exports are forecast to remain robust as India remains the dominant global rice exporter. Following multiple sea- sons of record crops, rice stocks have more than dou- bled in recent years, leaving ample room for both ex- ports and higher domestic use. Despite increased ex- ports and more distribution for the government’s food security programs, India’s rice stocks are still expect- ed to rise. The ample sup- ply situation suggests that export restrictions on rice are less likely. India is the world’s second-largest producer of rice and wheat and by far the largest producer of pulses. Wheat and rice are the cornerstones of India’s food security poli- cy. The Indian government allocates significant funding to support research, development, and extension activities to educate farmers about new varieties and improved pro- duction technologies for these crops. Central and state governments also support farmers by subsidizing inputs (water, fertilizer, seed, power, irrigation, chemicals, and ag- ricultural credit) for crops like wheat. Wheat is the staple food in northwest and central India. It competes with rice in wheat non-growing regions in south and east India. Households, local restaurants, and eateries account for about 80 percent of the wheat domestically consumed in India. Some wheat is used for processed food products such as raised bread, biscuits (cookies), and other bakery items (about 12-15 percent). There is also a small market for high-quality wheat (4-5 MMT) for western-style pasta, and baking/confectionery foods. On May 19, 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MOAFW) released the Third Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grains for the Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2021/2022 (July-June), lowering the forecast grain pro- duction estimate to 314.5 million metric tons (MMT). The forecasted lower production is due to the expected lower wheat (106.4 MMT) and barley (1.6 MMT) harvests result- ing from unprecedented high and sustained temperatures during the critical milking/seed setting stage. The grains crops’ overall forecasted decline, however, is partially off- set by expected higher production of rice (record 129.7 MMT), corn (record 33.2 MMT), pulses (record 25.8 MMT). WHEAT PRODUCTION USDA lowered its India MY 22/23 (April-March) wheat production forecast to 99 MMT compared to the pre-har- vest forecast of 110 MMT. “New Delhi Post is lowering the forecast on the reported yield loss due to extreme temperatures which began the second week of March during the critical milking/ seed setting stage through- out the major wheat-grow- ing areas,” USDA noted in its India report. The latest forecast of the Indian gov- ernment is 106.4 million tons. The Indian government will permit wheat exports to continue to neighboring countries including Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and other food security vulnerable coun- tries. Most trade sources had been expecting India to ex- port about 5-6 MMT of wheat and wheat products as Indian wheat is now highly competitive in the nearby region ($50 to $80 lower than other origins). Assuming no momentous Wheat Production, Consumption and Exports in India (1000 Tons) 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 Production 107860 109586 99000 Consumption 102217 109761 104000 Export 2561 8150 6000 Source: USDA Corn Production, Consumption and Exports in India (1000 Tons) 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 Production 31647 33000 31500 Consumption 27850 29300 30000 Exports 3590 3300 2400 Source: USDA Rice Production, Consumption and Exports in India (1000 Tons) 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 Production 124370 129500 130000 Consumption 101071 109500 107000 Export 20199 21000 22000 Source: USDA