Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

105 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / JULY 2022 change in the existing export policy, USDA forecasts MY 22/23 wheat and wheat products exports to reach 6 MMT. And based on the forecast of lower government wheat stocks and expected government wheat offtake under var- ious programs during the year, USDA’s MY 22/23 ending wheat stocks figure is lowered to 8.5 MMT. There are some obstacles to India's goal of increasing wheat exports, such as logistical bottlenecks at ports and railways, high freight rates and a lack of containers. For In- dia to be a long-term supplier, it must also achieve the de- sired standard in wheat quality. India was the second-larg- est wheat producer with a share of approximately 14% in world wheat production in 2020, but its share in global wheat exports remained below 1%. India is an erratic par- ticipant in the international wheat market. It imports wheat in low production years, and exports when local supplies are sufficient and prices are competitive. RICE PRODUCTION AND EXPORT Rice is India’s most important food crop, representing 40 percent of food grain production. Rice is the major sta- ple cereal for 70 percent of the population, with the bal- ance consuming rice with wheat or other cereals. India grows more than 4,000 rice varieties. The vast majority (90 percent) of farms are small (less than 2 hectares), and farmers retain 45-50 percent of production for their con- sumption (locally milled) and seed use. Most of the coarse rice production (high yielding/hybrid rice) is procured by the government, with smaller quantities purchased by pri- vate trade for exports. Locally preferred rice cultivars are procured by private trade and marketed in bulk and un- branded. A small, but growing, share of rice is branded and marketed in consumer packaging. Long grain Basmati rice and other specialty/fragrant rice varieties are procured by millers for export, as well as for domestic sales in bulk or branded/packages. USDA’s MY 21/22 (October-September) rice production estimate is raised to 129.5 MMT based on the estimated higher fall harvested production from the official third ad- vance estimate. Increased government procurement and market prices support the higher official rice production es- timates. USDA's 2022-23 season forecast is 130 million tons. India’s MY 21/22 rice consumption estimate is raised to 109.5 MMT on higher use of government rice in May-Sep- tember 2022 under the food assistance and security pro- grams. “Increased allocations of rice will drive MY 21/22 consumption to 109.5 MMT. The MY 22/23 consumption forecast stays unchanged at 107 MMT,” USDA says. Sources report stronger export offtake of wheat during March/April slowed down rice exports due to port con- gestion. However, rice exports will recover in the coming months as Indian rice remains more price competitive compared to other origins. USDA continues to estimate MY 21/22 rice exports unchanged at 21 MMT, and MY 22/23 exports at 22 MMT. Corn is the most important crop in India after rice and wheat. USDA’s MY 21/22 corn production estimate is 33 MMT. The production forecast for the next season is 31.5 million tons.