Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 107 MILLER / JULY 2022 High prices are treated with high prices. The reduc- tion in wheat production in key regions, the war and the blocking of Ukraine's ports by Russia are already included in the market's expectations. In the absence of news, we will begin to gradually decline, although there is no need to talk about a return to the usual price ranges. The world still needs to make up for the damage caused by Russia's lockdown and military ag- gression. Russian analysts continue to echo the government and raise their forecasts for wheat production, and along with them, the potential for exports. The numbers are approaching 90MMT, which, had Russia not committed a war crime, would have allowed them to export at least 42MMT. In view of the policy pursued by the Russian Federa- tion, it is impossible to verify the area data. The militarization of food has become one of the tools of manip- ulation. But the lack of a fleet, difficulties in accessing financing, and reputational risks have made Russian wheat an unpopular commod- ity. This was clearly shown by the latest tenders of countries where Russian origin was leading before the war. In order to spur the inter- est of buyers, the government has changed the formula for calculat- ing the export duty. In fact, lowering the duty is a necessary measure, because dumping is the only way to sell (even in conditions close to starvation) the grain behind which there is a war crime. Well, the conversion of the duty into rubles is a huge risk for the exporter. The High prices are treated with high prices Elena Faige Neroba Business Development Manager Maxigrain