Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

58 MILLER / JULY 2022 NEWS around the world that are suffering from sharp price increases driven by the war.” “These rising prices of food, fertilizer, feed and fuel, as well as tightening financial conditions are spreading human suffering across the world,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu. “An estimated 19 million more people could face chronic undernour- ishment globally in 2023, if the reduction of global food pro- duction and food supply from major exporting countries, includ- ing Russia and Ukraine, results in lower food availability hitting worldwide.” Whilst addressing the immediate problems, the global com- munity should not lose sight of the need to work towards achiev- ing the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to the Outlook, global food consumption, which is the main use of agricultural commodities, is projected to increase by 1.4% annually over the next decade, and to be main- ly driven by population growth. Most additional demand for food will continue to originate in low- and middle-income countries, while in high-income countries demand will be limited by slow population growth and a saturation in the per capita consump- tion of several food commodity groups. Diets in low-income countries, however, will likely remain largely based on staples and food consumption will not increase sufficiently to meet the Zero Hunger target by 2030. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE BY 28% OVER THE NEXT DECADE Over the next decade, global agricultural production is pro- jected to increase by 1.1% per year, with the additional output to be mainly produced in middle- and low-income countries. The Outlook assumes a wider access to inputs and shows that increased productivity-enhancing investment in technology, infrastructure and training will be critical drivers of agricultural growth. However, a prolonged increase in energy and agri- cultural input prices – such as fertilisers – will raise production costs and may constrain productivity and output growth in the coming years. The Outlook highlights the significant contribution of agricul- ture to climate change. Direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6% during the next decade, with livestock accounting for 90% of this increase. Agricultural emissions are, nonetheless, projected to grow at a lower rate than production, thanks to yield improvements and a reduction in the share of ruminant production, indicating a de- cline in the carbon intensity of agriculture. Greater efforts will be needed for the agricultural sector to effectively contribute to global reductions in GHG emissions, as set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change, including large-scale adoption of climate-smart production processes and technologies, espe- cially in the livestock sector. The Outlook provides an assessment of how potentially com- peting objectives of the agricultural sector can be achieved. Av- erage agricultural productivity must increase by 28% over the next decade for the world to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2) on Zero Hunger, while simultaneously keeping ag- ricultural emissions on track to reach the Paris Agreement tar- gets. This is more than triple the increase in productivity record- ed in the last decade. Ensuring well-functioning global trade and markets is essen- tial for addressing both short- and medium-term challenges to food security. Globally, trade in the main agricultural commod- ities and processed products is projected to grow in line with production over the next decade. However, some regions are expected to export a growing share of their domestic produc- tion, while others are foreseen to import a growing share of their total consumption. This increasing interdependency between trading partners underscores the critical importance of a trans- parent, predictable and rules-based multilateral trading system.