Miller Magazine Issue: 151 July 2022

97 ARTICLE MILLER / JULY 2022 •Total grains production in 2022/23 is currently fore- cast at 2,255m t, projected 2% down y/y, pulled lower by smaller maize (-29m) and wheat (-12m) outturns. While consumption prospects are mixed, a predicted pullback in feed demand could see total use edging lower, to 2,280m t. With a comparatively sharper drop in supply, world carryovers are set to tighten, placed 4% down, at 583m t. Assuming continued difficult Black Sea logistics, total world grains trade could drop by a further 3%, to 405m t. •For soyabeans the perspective is somewhat differ- ent, tied to acreage gains and a projected recovery in yields in the southern hemisphere, output could recover strongly in 2022/23, by 11% y/y. Boosted by processing in Asia and South America, global use is seen at a peak, while the Council foresees the poten- tial for inventory accumulation. Global soybean trade is projected to rise by 8% y/y. •With bigger crops predicted in Asian exporters, global rice production is placed at a record of 518m t in 2022/23, mod- estly higher y/y. Mainly linked to population growth, but with relatively lower prices compared to alternatives potentially un- derpinning demand, consumption is projected at a new peak. Inventories are seen unchanged y/y as gains in the major ex- porters – primarily India – offset a fall in China’s reserves. Trade is expected to stay elevated in 2023 on African demand. The first panel discussion focused on South Asia, one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing grains and oilseeds markets in the post COVID-19 era: Speak- ers from Mizuho Bank, the US Grains Council, USSEC, the US Wheat Associates (all based in Singapore) and FSI-Russia, provided an overview on the resilience of demand in this region in the face of difficult econom- ic perspectives. Food demand is still supported by the growing middle class which is looking for a diverse diet, but despite the higher cost of feed, consumption of white meat is expected to increase. The main bottle- necks to developing trade were currency depreciation, access to trade finance tools, the excessive cost off container freight and the ability of the milling industry to absorb price fluctuations. Infrastructure and logistics are also an enabler when it comes to business development in the grains sector. The second session looked at the options to improve trade in grains. DP World underlined how the United Arab Emir- ates maintains its key infrastructure strategic role as a logistical and processing hub. A number of ports in the United Arab Emirates have expanded their footprint, to include additional processing facilities, going beyond the traditional containers logistics, thereby enhancing connectivity with other smaller, regional ports Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for Agriculture explained how maritime routes are vital for the Ukrainian grains sector as 90% of