Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

The grain market is driven by uncertainties stemming from the war in Ukraine, post-COVID-19 macroeconomic developments, in particu- lar global inflation pressures and weather developments. The fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to impact global commodity markets and represents a major threat to global food security. In a post- COVID-19 recovery which was already facing market balance challenges and price surges, it brings additional instability and uncertainty. Global ag- ricultural prices have risen by 30% since the beginning of the invasion, al- though some relaxation has been observed in recent weeks, linked partly to the coming on stream of the forthcoming harvest. Ukrainian agriculture is directly impacted all along the supply chain, from production to trade. Several agricultural regions are confronted with heavy fighting, disrupting farming there. Russia targeted grain storage fa- cilities with missile attacks and Ukrainian sea ports remain blocked, hence making it impossible to export the remaining grain reserves from the last harvest. With the start of the new cereal harvest in Ukraine, uncertainty remains about the capacity of Ukrainian farmers to properly store and to export their 2022 harvest. This already creates concerns for global avail- ability and could in turn also threaten the capacity of Ukrainian farmers to ensure their 2023 harvest even on a reduced area. The upward pressure on agricultural producer prices is not expected to ease in the short term. This is mainly due to ongoing uncertainties on how the war in Ukraine will unfold, expectations on high energy costs to continue, particularly in a view of uncertainty linked to future policy on sourcing and use of gas and oil. These are continuing upward pressures on production costs, e.g. electricity, transport, cooling and heating, as well as fertilisers and other inputs. And the increase of producer prices of agricultural commodities is expected to weigh on food consumer prices, although the price transmission will not, as usual, be perfect. The demand recovery in China was halted by the series of COVID-19-re- lated lockdowns imposed at the beginning of 2022 contributing to a fall in imports of many food products. This risks contributing to continued lower demand growth in the remaining part of the year. On the contrary, the current level of oil price could to some extent support demand in oil-ex- porting countries. In addition, some lower inflation growth is currently ob- served in South Eastern Asia, therefore impacting their purchasing power to a lower extent than in other regions. editor Namık Kemal PARLAK millermagazine company/millermagazine millermagazine Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd. Gökevler Mah. 2312 Sok. No:16/37 Ginza Corner Plaza, Esenyurt / İstanbul - TURKEY T. +90 212 347 31 64 F. +90 212 212 02 04 www.millermagazine.com info@millermagazine.com On Behalf of Parantez Publishing and Congress Ltd., Owner Zübeyde Kavraz Responsible Manager Namık Kemal Parlak Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak Editors Mustafa Yağmurlu Cemalettin Kanaş Sales and Marketing Burcu Çetin Hayriye Turan Art Director and Visual Design Özer Duman Corporate Communications Ahmet Hamdi Annaç Consultancy Board Ali İhsan Özkaşıkçı, Chairman of AUSD Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of GUSAD Erhan Özmen, GUSAD Honorary Chairman Bekir Bağış, Chairman of Çukurova Flour Industrialists Association Hasan Özmermer, Board Member of Özmermer Flour Derviş Toprak Mehmet Şerif Gültay Referee and Scientific Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Mustafa Bayram Prof. Gustavo Sosa Prof. Dr. Hazım Özkaya Prof. Dr. Harun Dıraman Asst. Prof. M. Kürşat Demir Asst. Prof. Halef Dizlek Asst. Prof. Mustafa Erbaş Publication Type Periodic (Monthly) Printing - Baskı İhlas Gazetecilik A.Ş. Merkez Mah. 29 Ekim Cad. No: 11 A 41 Yenibosna-Bahçelievler-İstanbul Tel: 0212 454 30 00 All copyrights belong to Parantez Publishing. © May not be used without permission. Responsibility of the ads belongs to the advertisers. ISSN 2718-031X COPYRIGHT PAGE Grain market outlook