Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

26 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 NEWS The UN plan, which also paves the way for Russian food and fertilizer to reach global markets, will help to stabilize spiralling food prices worldwide and stave off famine, affecting millions. In addition to stabilizing global food prices, the agreement “will bring relief for developing countries on the edge of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the edge of famine,” said Mr. Guterres. “Since the war started, I have been highlighting that there is no solution to the global food crisis without ensuring full global ac- cess to Ukraine’s food products and Russian food and fertilizer.” Mr. Guterres pledged the UN’s full commitment to the agree- ment, and urged all sides to do the same. “This is an unprece- dented agreement between two parties engaged in bloody con- flict. But that conflict continues,” he said, noting that people are dying every day as the fighting rages. “The beacon of hope on the Black Sea is shining bright today, thanks to the collective ef- forts of so many. In these trying and turbulent times for the region and our globe, let that beacon guide the way towards easing hu- man suffering and securing peace.” DETAILS OF THE GRAIN DEAL • The deal specifically allows for significant volumes of com- mercial food exports from three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea – Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. • UN chief announced the establishment of a Joint Coordina- tion Centre to monitor implementation. It will be hosted in Istanbul and will include representatives from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey. • Inspection teams will monitor the onloading of grain at the three ports. Ukrainian pilot vessels will guide the ships through the Black Sea, which is mined, after which they will head out through the Bosphorus Strait along an agreed corridor. • Ships going into the ports also will be inspected. All commer- cial vessels that partake in this initiative will be subject to inspec- tions carried out by the inspection teams in the harbours deter- mined by Turkey, at the entrance/exit to/from the Turkish strait. • All activity in Ukrainian territorial waters will be carried out under Ukraine’s jurisdiction. No warships, aircraft or drones can come closer to the maritime humanitarian corridor than the dis- tance established by the Joint Coordination Centre. • The treaty will be valid for 120 days from the signature date and will be automatically extended if neither side decides to ter- minate it. Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and ex- porters and plays a critical role in supplying oilseeds and grains to the global market. Agricultural products are Ukraine’s most im- portant exports. In 2021 they totaled $27.8 billion, accounting for 41 percent of the country’s $68 billion in overall exports. Ukraine is the world’s ninth-largest wheat producer and is fore- casted to be the eighth-largest exporter for the 2022/23 market- ing year. In 2021, Ukrainian wheat exports were valued at $5.1 billion, with Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as the primary destinations. War-induced disruptions to food exports from Russia and Ukraine expose global food markets to heightened risks of tighter availabilities, unmet import demand and higher international food prices. The war has significantly undermined Ukrainian grain ex- ports, owing to the lack of access to Black Sea ports and the lim- ited means of alternative transportation, such as rail, river or road transport, to compensate for the lack of seaborne shipments. Assuming these war-related disruptions persist, FAO’s tentative forecasts for 2022/23 (July/June) indicate that Ukrainian wheat exports could decline by 50 percent (or 9 million tonnes) com- pared to already constrained 2021/22 levels to 10 million tonnes, while those of maize exports could register a 32 percent (7 million tonnes) annual decline to 15 million tonnes.