Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

28 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 NEWS FAO’s (The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) forecast for global cereal produc- tion in 2022 was raised by 7 million tonnes in July from the previous month and is now pegged at 2 792 million tonnes, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. This is still 0.6 percent short of the world output in 2021. The month-on-month increase predominantly rests on a 6.4-million-tonne upward revision made to the coarse grain production forecast, with the world output seen reaching 1 501 million tonnes in 2022, only 0.5 percent below the 2021 outturn. Prospects were bolstered this month by reports indicating large maize plantings in China (main- land) and India. Furthermore, although still pointing to a likely 30-percent decline from the past five- year average, Ukraine’s maize production pros- pects were also lifted with official data indicating larger-than-previously anticipated maize sowings. These increases more than outweigh moderate cut- backs to maize production forecasts for Mexico and several Far East Asian countries, as well as a more sizeable cut to the forecast for the European Union, where plantings are lower than originally predicted and drier-than-normal weather has dampened yield prospects. The forecast for world wheat production in 2022 has been lowered only fractionally in July to 770.3 million tonnes, remaining 1.0 percent low- er year-on-year. The marginally diminished outlook results from cuts to production forecasts for the European Union, where persisting dryness has im- paired yield prospects, and to a lesser degree for Argentina and Iraq. These downgrades more than outweigh improved harvest expectations in Canada and Australia, where conducive weather at plant- ing time and remunerative prices are encouraging area expansions. Additionally, continued beneficial weather in the Russian Federation has lifted yield prospects of the winter crop and further reinforced the country’s good production prospects in 2022. As for rice, FAO has raised its 2022 production forecast for India based on a higher officially re- ported outcome of the 2021 Kharif harvest in the country. This revision more than compensates for a yield-based reduction made for Viet Nam, along- side some other more minor downgrades. As a result, world rice production in 2022 is now seen FAO raises its forecast for global grain production