Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

30 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 NEWS in the order of 520.5 million tonnes (milled basis), down just 0.4 percent from the 2021 record harvest. The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2022/23 has also been lifted, up 9.2 million tonnes to 2 797 million tonnes, but is still 1.7 million tonnes (0.1 per- cent) below the 2021/22 level, mostly reflecting ex- pectations of lower feed use. At 854 million tonnes, FAO’s forecast of world ce- real stocks at the close of seasons in 2023 is up 7.6 million tonnes from the previous month but still points to a year-on-year contraction of 0.6 percent (5.0 million tonnes). At this level, the global cere- al stock-to-use ratio would fall from 30.7 percent in 2021/22 to 29.8 percent in 2022/23. FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2022/23 stands at 468 million tonnes, up 4.8 mil- lion tonnes from last month but representing the lowest level in three seasons and a decrease of 11.4 million tonnes (2.4 percent) from the 2021/22 volume. Accounting for the bulk of the decline, trade in coarse grains is forecast to contract by 4.1 percent (9.5 million tonnes) in 2022/23 (July/June) from the 2021/22 estimated level, largely driven by war-related disruptions of maize and barley exports from Ukraine. Although larger expected maize shipments from Brazil and higher demand from the European Union have boosted global maize trade prospects since the previous report, FAO’s forecast for global maize trade in 2022/23 stands 3.0 per- cent lower than the 2021/22 level. Increased ex- ports from Brazil in 2022/23 are seen falling short of compensating for smaller shipments expected from the other major maize exporters, including Ukraine, as its main ports remain blocked by the ongoing war, and Argentina and the United States of America, on account of smaller harvests. At 191 million tonnes, world wheat trade in 2022/23 is also forecast to contract by 1.3 percent from 2021/22, largely resulting from a fall in exports from Ukraine and anticipated smaller purchases by several coun- tries in Asia. Ukraine’s reduced export prospects, combined with smaller sales forecasts for Australia and Argentina based on reduced export availabil- ities, are seen outweighing expected increases in exports from Canada, the European Union and the Russian Federation. International trade in rice in 2022 (January-December) is pegged at 53.4 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent from the 2021 peak and 0.4 million tonnes more than previously anticipated in early June.