Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

40 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 NEWS EU exports of cereals are expected to increase by 14% compared to 2021/22, partially offsetting the reduc- tion in global exports being caused by the blockage of Ukrainian sea ports and export restrictions that have been put in place by some exporters, European Commission said in its latest agricultural markets report. European Commission published its latest short-term out- look for EU agricultural markets amidst global food security concerns. Published on 7 July 2022, the report presents a de- tailed overview of the latest trends and prospects for a range of agri-food sectors. Here are highlights from the report: In the EU, production of grains is affected by dry weather conditions in several regions. As a result, the forecast for EU production of grains is lower than expected and below 2021 levels. However, the existing stocks will help to meet domestic consumption needs and some of the export demand, which is expected to remain high in view of pressures on global mar- kets. The EU animal sector (meat and dairy) faces its own chal- lenges with animal disease outbreaks and high feed prices. However, food availability in the EU is not at risk. Cereal prices remain very high and volatile due to uncer- tainty about the global level of supply caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which further aggravated high energy and fertiliser prices and the post-COVID demand for animal feed. Total EU cereal production is expected to reach 286.4 mil- lion tonnes, 2.5% lower than the season of 2021/22. However, the demand for animal feed and for cereals to produce biofu- els is expected to decrease by 1.3% and 3% respectively, and the EU has relatively high cereal stocks. EU exports of cereals are expected to increase by 14% compared to 2021/22, par- tially offsetting the reduction in global exports being caused by the blockage of Ukrainian sea ports and export restrictions that have been put in place by some exporters. The total availability of EU cereals in 2022/23 is expected at an almost identical level of the previous season. A higher level of beginning stocks (+20% to 50.1 million t) will help compen- sate for lower production which is forecast to decline to 286.4 million t (-2.5% year-on-year). The drop in production is due to the hot and dry spring in key EU cereal production areas and could fall further if current overall adverse weather conditions, notably drought, continue. This level of availability will ensure adequate supply for domestic consumption and will also al- low, combined with lower imports, EU cereals net exports to increase to 33.5 million t, partially offsetting the drop due to the blockage of the Ukrainian sea ports and export restric- tions in place by some exporters. The derogation to allow the production of any crops for food and feed purposes on fallow land, granted in March by the Commission, resulted in an increase in sown areas of pro- tein crops for 2022/23. The projected increase in area stands at 6% (2.2 million hectares) for protein crops year-on-year. Thanks to the increased production, EU exports of protein crops are expected to grow by 19% compared with last year. EU exports of cereals forecast to increase by 14%