Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

42 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 NEWS Latin America and Caribbean wheat imports dropped in 2021/22 as major suppliers to the region suffered production shortfalls but are forecast to recover to record levels in 2022/23. The region’s wheat food use has historically ex- panded in line with population growth. Bread and other wheat products are staple foods, causing de- mand for wheat grain and flour to increase steadi- ly. While approximately 10 percent of the region’s wheat imports are wheat flour and products, the remaining 90 percent of wheat grain imports are primarily consumed by the region’s robust milling industry. Canada, the United States, and Argentina are consistently the top exporters to the region, competing for market share based on exportable supplies and relative prices. Many Latin American and Caribbean millers prefer higher-protein Canadian or U.S. wheat, but Argentine is typically a more affordable option for millers. Import taxes and tariffs also influence countries’ choice of suppliers. For example, tariff-free trade within the Mer- cosur bloc allows Argentina to export significant vol- umes of wheat to its neighboring countries. The Unit- ed States and Canada have also implemented various free trade agreements in the region. In 2021/22, both Canada and the United States faced drought-reduced crops. Canada wheat produc- tion dropped nearly 40 percent from 2020/21, causing its exports to Latin America and Caribbean to decline by over 3 million tons. Canada primarily exports spring wheat grain to South America, typically capturing ma- jority market shares in Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador. U.S. wheat production in 2021/22 declined 10 per- cent from the prior year due to drought conditions im- pacting the spring, white, and durum crops. However, HRW and SRW account for the majority of U.S. wheat exports to Latin America and Caribbean and produc- tion of both was up in 2021/22. The United States was able to maintain exports to the region in 2021/22 and gain market share in markets that typically depend on Canada exports. Argentina, meanwhile, had record wheat production in 2021/22, allowing exports to the region to expand by nearly 2 million tons, mostly to Brazil. Furthermore, while Canadian and U.S. wheat export quotes surged due to constrained supplies, Ar- gentine prices were relatively affordable. Looking forward, Canada wheat production is fore- cast to rebound in 2022/23 by nearly 60 percent to 34 million tons, allowing exports to rebound to Latin America and Caribbean. U.S. wheat exports are also forecast higher with larger production, while Argentina exports are forecast down as Argentine export quotes have surged over the past month due to exhausted supplies. With that in mind, Latin America and Carib- bean wheat imports are forecast up by 1.6 million tons in 2022/23. Latin America wheat imports to rebound in 2022/23