Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

65 COVER STORY MILLER / AUGUST 2022 temperature and precipitation. These forecasts use advances in Earth-system monitoring and prediction modeling capa- bilities to extend conventional short-term weather forecasts (up to two weeks) to seasonal climate predictions. Enhanced weather and climate forecasting skills improve early detec- tion and warning systems for floods and droughts. With this information, policymakers can prepare for disasters and re- duce damages by, for example, declaring emergencies early and getting resources where they are likely to be needed in advance. Between 2000 and 2017, advances in flood ear- ly-warning systems were estimated to have already helped to reduce global flood-related human casualties by 45 percent and the number of people affected by floods by 24 percent. Conservative estimates based on a meta-analysis of global studies suggest that the benefit-cost ratio for reliable climate information services is about 10 to 1, with potential global ben- efits as high as US$30 billion per year in increased agricultur- al productivity and $2 billion per year in reduced asset losses. Population growth, climate change, and unsustainable use of natural resources have made a negative impact on food security around the world. In the absence of a global commit- ment to build food systems adapted to climate change and ensure food security, while minimizing greenhouse gas emis- sions and sustaining our natural resource base, this negative impact is likely to increase. Such drastic occurrences will lead to international food shortages and rising food prices in the coming decades, which will result in malnourishment and an increase in pov- erty increase in lesser developed regions. Expanded in- vestments in sustainable agriculture to increase agricultural productivity per land area and to avoid losses in productive capacity, as well as promotion of healthier food diets and food waste reduction, are required to avoid an increasing gap between food supply and demand. Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipa- tory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. REFERENCES: International Food Policy Research Institute. 2022. 2022 Global Food Policy Report: Climate Change and Food Sys- tems. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research In- stitute. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294257 FAO. 2022. Crops and climate change impact briefs. Cli- mate-smart agriculture for more sustainable, resilient, and eq- uitable food systems. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb8030en Adams, K.M., Benzie, M., Croft, S. & Sadowski, S. (2021). Cli- mate Change, Trade, and Global Food Security: A Global As- sessment of Transboundary Climate Risks in Agricultural Com- modity Flows. SEI Report. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2021.009