Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

66 COVER STORY MILLER / AUGUST 2022 The International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) predict that by 2050 higher temperatures will reduce wheat yields in developing countries by ap- proximately 20 to 30 percent. Wheat production systems need to adapt to ensure they continue to contribute to food security, rural livelihoods and sustainable food systems under a changing climate. Sustainable wheat production Wheat, which is grown on 220 million hectares, is cultivated on more land than any other crop. Wheat can tolerate a wide range of temperatures and precipitation levels and grows on a number of types of soils. The most common wheat species are bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum tur- gidum). Both species play an important role in feeding theWorld. By 2050, demand for wheat is predicted to increase by 50 percent from current levels. Declining wheat productivity and rising wheat prices will have the most profound impact on coun- tries that have high rates of poverty and depend on wheat for food security. As climate change potentially drives production into higher latitudes, the livelihoods of small-scale farmers, par- ticularly in the global South, will become increasingly at risk. China, India, the Russian Federation, North America and Northwest Europe are ranked as the top wheat-producing coun- tries and regions. Globally, wheat is second only to rice as a source of calories and is the most important source of protein. Wheat supplies up to half of all calories in North Africa and West and Central Asia. Climate change, which is being driven by increasing con- centrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is having a number of observable impacts, such as drought and higher temperatures, and these impacts are predicted to reduce crop yields and affect global food pro- duction. Generally, reduced yields result from a combination of factors, including adverse extreme temperatures, disease threats (e.g. wheat rusts), decreased soil fertility, and declining efficiency in the use of inputs in conventional cropping sys- tems. This combination of factors is increasing the demand for new crop varieties. The International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) predict that by 2050 higher temperatures will reduce wheat yields in developing coun- tries by approximately 20 to 30 percent. The McKinsey Global Institute has projected that by 2030, wheat farmers will be 11 percent more likely to see a 10 percent or greater yield decline in any given year compared with the present, and the same decrease is predicted to be 23 percent more likely by 2050.