Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

93 COUNTRY PROFILE MILLER / AUGUST 2022 imports at 18 mmt, 2 mmt lower than the prior esti- mate. MY2021/22 corn imports are estimated at 24 mmt, 1 mmt higher than USDA's official forecast. China has turned to the United States to close its 2-4 mmt corn supply gap in MY2021/22 due to the war in Ukraine. In April alone, China purchased 4.5 mmt of U.S. corn with more than 2.6 MMT for MY2021/22 and close to 2 MMT for MY2022/23. It's projected over 1.3 mmt of U.S. corn will arrive in China in June, mainly in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shandong provinces. In April, China and Brazil signed an updated Protocol on Phytosanitary Requirements for ex- porting Brazilian corn to China. Industry sources speculate that China might have already pur- chased between 250,000 to 400,000 tons of corn from Brazil. Brazilian corn's after-tariff price is RMB 200 per ton lower than U.S. corn. It will take two to three months for corn from Brazil to reach ports in China, and it might go into the na- tional reserves instead of being distributed to the market. In the past, most Chinese enterpris- es moved away from Brazilian corn due to the extended shipping times and high freight costs. The lack of relevant government approvals for genetically modified corn also added to the diffi- culty of importing from Brazil. Ending Stocks in MY2022/23 are forecast at 208.2 mmt, down 9 mmt from MY2021/22, with higher feed use and lower imports. With food security as a policy priority, the government has shown its willingness to utilize multiple tools to stabilize grain prices and increase stock levels. GROWING DEMAND FOR WHEAT China produces about 120 million tons of wheat each year – on approximately 24 million hectares of land. Wheat makes up 40 percent of grain con- sumption in China and about 60 percent of the country’s population eats the grain daily. Cultivat- ed wheat is the second most important food crop in China after rice. It is the dominant staple food in the northern part of the country where it is used mainly to produce noodles and steamed bread. In China, more than 95 percent of wheat is sown in the autumn. A double cropping system is used in the Yellow River and Huai River valleys in which wheat is rotated with maize. In the Yangtze Valley it is rotated with rice. Demand for wheat in China is growing due to population increase and rising living standards, but production is challenged by water scarcity, environmental contamination, rising tempera- tures, droughts, labor shortages and land-use shifts from grain production to cash crops. Wheat production in 2022/23 is forecast at 135 mmt. “Based on an industry field trip to the six ma- jor production provinces in mid-May, Henan's wheat growing conditions and quality are similar to last year. The field trip concluded that the total nation- al wheat growing area was stable, and the overall quality was better than MY2021/22,” USDA said.