Miller Magazine Issue: 152 August 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 99 MILLER / AUGUST 2022 Stable harvesting rates in the Black Sea and the Istan- bul agreement are weighing on stock prices, but heavy EU line-ups and risks in the Black Sea suggest that the market may turn around soon. France and Romania oversold for August and September. China has been active in the wheat market. Specifically, traders reported purchases of around 1m tonnes of Aus- tralian wheat for both animal feed and milling during the September-March shipping period. In addition, this week China bought at least two shipments and possibly seven shipments of French wheat for shipment between Septem- ber and November, they said. The French purchase includ- ed low-quality wheat with a protein content of 10.5% for at least two batches. French wheat exports tripled to 119,000 in the week of July 20, with all exports going to Morocco. The lowest price offered in the tender from Pakistan for the purchase of 200,000 tons of wheat, which ended on Monday, was $407.49 per ton C&F. On July 21, TCP pur- chased 300,000 tons of wheat in a previous tender at a price of $404.86. Meanwhile, Russia exported 540,000 tons of grain last week, up from 500,000 tons the previous week, according to the port. According to IKAR, Russian prices for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% and deliv- ered from the Black Sea ports at the end of last week fell by $5 to $355 per ton FOB. According to Sovecon, wheat prices for urgent delivery were at the level of $350-355 per ton against $355-360 a week earlier. Vessel calls at deepwater ports decreased by 7% compared to last year. Potential financial and reputational risks of trade with Rus- sia, duties and an artificially strong ruble have reduced the competitiveness of Russian wheat. Market players say Pa- kistan is contracting French wheat, making France's lineup even tighter. In Kazakhstan, the wheat harvest in 2022 will be 13.0- 13.5MMT, which is 15% more than last year, Agriculture Min- ister said on Tuesday. With domestic consumption forecast at 6.0MMT, the rest will be available for export, he said at a briefing. Local agricultural associations called on the gov- ernment to ban the import of various types of grain, as well as flour and sunflower seeds from Russia by trucks. This measure will reduce the illegal import of Russian grain into Kazakhstan. Weekly reports from the USDA were positive both in terms of the pace of the harvest and the condition of the wheat. The completion of the US winter wheat harvest was below analysts' forecasts and lagged behind the previous