Miller Magazine Issue: 153 September 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 100 MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2022 will be lower compared to last year. The agency said almost complete quality results showed that 27% of French soft wheat contained less than 11% protein. India's Сabinet on Thursday approved a policy to restrict wheat flour exports to lower prices in the local market, the government said in a statement. Despite the government's official position, the market expects Indian wheat imports in a few months. In Australia, prices for feed wheat, barley and sorghum fell this week to prices most producers are unprepared for, while consumers cut back on their purchas- es in hopes of falling further. Bangladesh is considering importing about 500kMT of milling wheat at $430/tonne under an intergovernmental agreement with Russia and could sign an agreement ear- lier this week. This is close to the volume of Bangladesh's imports from Russia for the entire 2021/22 marketing year - 495kMT. Bangladesh to increase wheat imports in 2022/23 to 7MMT, nearly 8% more than last year, according to USDA. Gasc is buying wheat at a good pace: they have already booked 2.79 MMT on 22/23 against 1.61 MMT last year. In the current season, purchases of mainly Russian wheat of- ten take place without tenders. Pakistan as well looks for Russian wheat to make up for flood-hit crops. There were rumors that Alge- ria bought Russian wheat on tender as well. In Russia, Rusagrotrans analysts estimate a decline in wheat ex- ports (including the EAEU countries) in July-August by 25%, to 5.7 million tons compared to last year. The Rus- sian Union of Grain Exporters, for its part, expects wheat sales in the country in July-August to fall by 20% com- pared to last year. The union cites "invisible barriers" and other logistical problems despite the lack of sanc- tions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The to- tal volume of grain production in Russia in 2022 may reach 145MMT, which will allow exporting 55-56MMT, Prozerno said. Export of wheat may reach 44MMT. Car- ryover stocks could increase from 14-15 MMT to 19.5 MMT, domestic grain consumption will rise this season on the back of increased demand from livestock. In Rus- sia and Ukraine, there are problems with the quality of the first batches formed for export from the new crop. From the one hand Ukrainian crop entered market via grain corridor increasing global supply making bread cheaper for everyone – doesn’t matter in which country you are. In August more than 60 vessels delivered 1,5MMT from Ukrainian Greater Odesa ports. From another hand, war still not over, farmers are not sure will they plant win- ter wheat and will exports reach target volume in 5-6MMT/ month and weather all over the world brings uncertainty and supports price. Abducet praedam, cui occurit prior. We have to be ready.